Music · resolved market
Will Taylor Swift release a new original album by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ad5fb6dc9ddd9f0c6f4ef2f94a58232d4dcffa5a8953955121d86fdd40661c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 6,637$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.53 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Yes | 7c | 3,308$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5b…d4ecbacked Yes | 0c | 2,988$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 13c | 2,892$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.29 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,703$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…b97bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed Yes | 7c | 2,183$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.88 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,166$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.65 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…393ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,800$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,630$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…4392backed Yes | 39c | 1,489$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,434$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.91 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 7c | 1,379$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.74 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…d22dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,353$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…b277backed Yes | 26c | 1,216$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…388dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6380…e74fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,116$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c21…a532backed Yes | 1c | 1,050$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e8…8931backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 944.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9de9…7abebacked Yes | 9c | 900$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed Yes | 10c | 740.74$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked No | 68c | 668.55$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad1…6d88backed Yes | 8c | 648$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 2c | 602.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 43c | 521.2$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.57 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.39per pick | 40cpaid | +245.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…0444backed Yes | 14c | 480.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2153…69c2backed Yes | 8c | 382.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 8c | 339$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 325.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 307.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…7888backed Yes | 8c | 305.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…fc02backed Yes | 6c | 176.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2951…8f9fbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked Yes | 37c | 110$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f05…cd94backed No | 58c | 51.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.