CS2 · resolved market
Will Natus Vincere win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46960a71496ed14c72dafe2b5fb016ac806480092542d58695aaa41c9ed785ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 12,384$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.35 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes | 3c | 11,297$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.92 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 4c | 9,636$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.38 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Yes | 5c | 6,989$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.47 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 4c | 6,100$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.33 | 261 | 34.5%90 W · 171 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 3c | 3,874$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c0…d8bebacked Yes | 4c | 2,418$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.64 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed Yes | 3c | 1,954$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 3c | 1,830$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 3c | 1,590$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Yes | 3c | 1,547$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed Yes | 3c | 1,363$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed Yes | 3c | 1,320$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Yes | 3c | 1,284$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6111…cbe3backed Yes | 3c | 1,130$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,128$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 537 | 37.1%199 W · 338 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…ebc5backed Yes | 3c | 1,074$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed Yes | 7c | 958.41$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6038…57efbacked Yes | 6c | 861.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b1…590dbacked Yes | 4c | 834.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…8138backed Yes | 3c | 748.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb3…33acbacked Yes | 3c | 626.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ee…c6f0backed Yes | 3c | 619.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5e…1d41backed Yes | 3c | 590.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed Yes | 3c | 555$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c7…0b56backed Yes | 9c | 549.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked Yes | 10c | 495$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x455d…89d6backed Yes | 6c | 469.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 2c | 444.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 252 | 43.3%109 W · 143 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…c460backed Yes | 6c | 251.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f63…deb8backed Yes | 13c | 112.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natus Vincere win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament?this page
- Will Astralis win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament?No won
- Will Aurora win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament?No won
- Will BIG win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament?No won
- Will Complexity win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament?No won
- Will FURIA win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament?No won
- Will FaZe win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament?No won
- Will Falcons win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament?No won
- Will G2 win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament?No won
- Will GamerLegion win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament?No won
- Will HEROIC win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament?No won
- Will Liquid win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament?No won
- Will MOUZ win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament?No won
- Will Ninjas in Pyjamas win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament?No won
- Will Spirit win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament?Yes won
- Will TYLOO win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament?No won
- Will The MongolZ win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament?No won
- Will Vitality win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament?No won
- Will paiN win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.