UFC · resolved market
UFC: Ewert vs. Panferov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaca9bfea10f40b28738cc2aa5757947e9aa3daedcc374c7f514800413b28bf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Panferovof Ewert, Panferov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Panferov | 36c | 2,743$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,754.77 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Panferov | 33c | 2,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,329.99 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Ewert | 65c | 1,584$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.75 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Ewert | 53c | 1,363$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.66 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Ewert | 67c | 1,152$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.18 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…3e05backed Ewert | 28c | 403.81$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed Ewert | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Ewert | 64c | 86.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Panferov | 31c | 74.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Ewert | 69c | 59.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Ewert | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…4323backed Ewert | 68c | 28.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked Ewert | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed Ewert | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf134…0e2bbacked Ewert | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC: Ewert vs. Panferovthis page
- UFC: Bouafia vs. SantanaBouafia won
- UFC: Mangos vs. da Silvada Silva won
- UFC: Miller vs. Drago Miller won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.