UFC · resolved market
UFC: Bouafia vs. Santana
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2f010881b9eaa7b55ca337ea8cd4cd6917d390742f9264d8840b23b1adddc59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bouafiaof Bouafia, Santana
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Bouafia | 67c | 445.33$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.33 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Bouafia | 67c | 429.86$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.85 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Bouafia | 61c | 324.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.23 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Santana | 35c | 208.53$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Bouafia | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Santana | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 168 | 51.8%87 W · 81 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Santana | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Santana | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed Santana | 34c | 87.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Bouafia | 64c | 87.23$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Santana | 37c | 61.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…ca45backed Bouafia | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Santana | 22c | 56.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Bouafia | 73c | 43.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe615…6819backed Bouafia | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Bouafia | 78c | 27.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked Bouafia | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x749e…8626backed Bouafia | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Bouafia | 65c | 20.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Bouafia | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC: Bouafia vs. Santanathis page
- UFC: Ewert vs. PanferovPanferov won
- UFC: Mangos vs. da Silvada Silva won
- UFC: Miller vs. Drago Miller won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.