Movies · resolved market
Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $25m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a39f77a60b651c884c6104db95e118ce6e7b9ae57eb127522435ace823f81cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 2c | 11,119$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.25 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9640…eb27backed Yes | 5c | 9,403$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 3c | 9,328$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.11 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…8569backed Yes | 3c | 6,508$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 11c | 3,103$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.23 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed Yes | 22c | 2,100$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,415$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 11c | 1,351$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.54 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda30…7112backed Yes | 5c | 1,026$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 933.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 1,415 | 8%113 W · 1,302 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 900.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.47 | 509 | 33.2%169 W · 340 L | -31.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d22…65b1backed Yes | 12c | 823.14$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb563…1ed6backed Yes | 13c | 561.13$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed Yes | 8c | 554.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +367.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712c…de39backed Yes | 25c | 536.2$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.9 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…7f5cbacked Yes | 19c | 526$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 5c | 516$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 174 | 17.2%30 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 43cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…c9a5backed Yes | 5c | 398.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd30a…7621backed Yes | 20c | 382.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.43 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…ee61backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef5…5047backed Yes | 9c | 275.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed Yes | 8c | 272.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 16c | 257.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…5c3abacked Yes | 11c | 242.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff48…7242backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 13c | 199.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 9c | 191.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked Yes | 23c | 190.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd124…b1c6backed Yes | 30c | 175.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 104.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb18…d29abacked Yes | 13c | 84.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e82…6bacbacked No | 73c | 74.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 51.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 885 | 33.6%297 W · 588 L | -76.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…3c45backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3511…a52bbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $25m?this page
- Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $16m and $19m?No won
- Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $19m and $22m?Yes won
- Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $22m and $25m?No won
- Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $16m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.