Movies · resolved market
Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $22m and $25m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x677fd169b79c7e6ef191afe8a97b0564910740f68caaa3caa7487de6134f58c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 70c | 2,656$1,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,850.59 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…6896backed No | 10c | 1,923$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,734.23 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…94b6backed Yes | 3c | 1,869$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 12cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 39c | 1,826$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.94 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 51c | 1,709$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.98 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 13c | 1,526$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.91 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 59c | 1,290$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.79 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 1,101$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 67c | 1,052$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.57 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 63c | 949.96$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.48 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 79c | 735$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.71 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 52c | 582.46$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.76 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed Yes | 19c | 579.75$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 11c | 399.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 286$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.35 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 7c | 262.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.67 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 36c | 255.29$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.11 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89df…c5ddbacked No | 19c | 238.09$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 43cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…6c04backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 49c | 180$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 51c | 164.76$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.83 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked Yes | 20c | 160.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 10c | 140.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.87 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec0…40dabacked No | 51c | 131$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…8bc9backed Yes | 49c | 97.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 84.26$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 35c | 82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 59c | 73.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…a354backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…5c3abacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 43c | 46.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 56c | 35.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x079c…5a65backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x111b…bad9backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 78c | 18.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $22m and $25m?this page
- Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $16m and $19m?No won
- Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $19m and $22m?Yes won
- Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $16m?No won
- Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $25m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.