Movies · resolved market
Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $19m and $22m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e37a68cfdbb0e0268a37513b3f3c5ca118ab7fbf9895a5deddac55873ae3993
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 16c | 7,397$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,183.16 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…6896backed Yes | 7c | 5,319$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,924.31 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 4c | 2,631$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,523.51 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 7c | 2,245$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,085.5 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 11c | 1,800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 11c | 1,800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 10c | 1,370$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.44 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 57c | 864.59$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.06 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 35c | 452.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.21 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 7c | 395.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.55 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed Yes | 5c | 374$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +367.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 347.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.08 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89d7…3fabbacked Yes | 38c | 314.17$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.79 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 16c | 300.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.43 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…32e3backed Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 5c | 288$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.89 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…ee61backed Yes | 7c | 277.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.73 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 76c | 218$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.46 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06bc…2887backed Yes | 5c | 215.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +168.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 65c | 212.72$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.27 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 66c | 212.67$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.31 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd57…694dbacked Yes | 12c | 195$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +174.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 188.87$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.39 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 15c | 187.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.65 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 21c | 156.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.7 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…8bc9backed Yes | 38c | 150.49$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.56 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 29c | 148.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.59 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 25c | 138.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.15 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…d97cbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce20…9ae3backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 32c | 94.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 22c | 81.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.62 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8f…3c8abacked Yes | 41c | 72.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079c…5a65backed Yes | 39c | 55.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…b234backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +202.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x111b…bad9backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $19m and $22m?this page
- Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $16m and $19m?No won
- Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $22m and $25m?No won
- Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $16m?No won
- Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $25m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.