Music · resolved market
Taylor Swift announces new original album by September 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6c97fdfa93b7a5157cdfe94af78fe0d3c7d9d2ae7c3b53a5d64e37cc0a47431
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5674…15c2backed No | 37c | 565.72$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…e838backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 46c | 500$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaff…806dbacked Yes | 71c | 415.98$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 7c | 254.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 4c | 248.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed No | 54c | 244.56$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…981ebacked No | 33c | 240$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 55c | 230$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…abd5backed Yes | 44c | 210$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +155.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…dcd8backed Yes | 60c | 188.82$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 53c | 179.33$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.29 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 46c | 132.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 56c | 119.72$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 70c | 83.4$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 57c | 82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…de83backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55bf…e2ddbacked No | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…235cbacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0816…377abacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.