Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel carry out an airstrike on the West Bank by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb06c440336024093b171c7e3059a6129ca497c1f12ad9f17b682f81691e58427
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84c6…c8c8backed Yes | 13c | 2,962$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.64 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +140.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed Yes | 17c | 2,329$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.29 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 37c | 1,939$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.32 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 16c | 1,534$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.54 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed No | 65c | 1,254$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.77 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 1,205$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.15 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…c364backed No | 79c | 1,124$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.13 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.32per pick | 58cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d88…ba3dbacked Yes | 18c | 544.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 64c | 512.49$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.06 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 15c | 448.58$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 3c | 404$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc06…2c0abacked No | 63c | 396.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.83 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 19c | 377.43$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…9469backed Yes | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 310.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 16c | 289$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8617…e460backed Yes | 18c | 280.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 14c | 275.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 117 | 28.2%33 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 16c | 272.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54b…aa14backed No | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 191.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 61c | 184.52$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.96 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed Yes | 34c | 180$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 15c | 160$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…bf23backed Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 43cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9025…b4bdbacked Yes | 22c | 149$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a76…3022backed Yes | 12c | 141.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 72c | 140.55$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7642…55ccbacked No | 76c | 132.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed No | 77c | 130.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…9dcabacked Yes | 18c | 130.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9357…81ddbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ee…119bbacked Yes | 20c | 102.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked Yes | 16c | 101.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 41c | 98.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 24c | 89.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 89.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…08a5backed Yes | 33c | 75.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed Yes | 19c | 74.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 15c | 71.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…d073backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…413abacked No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 55c | 48.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb1…2630backed Yes | 21c | 47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ab…4481backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 19 | 89.5%17 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd387…6d17backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6233…cefdbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…1c77backed No | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.