TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 90 and 94?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$148,229
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$131,516

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,229 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa38e…8719backed No68c47,289$32,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,132.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dba…b4e3backed Yes32c47,289$15,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,132.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9d5…4739backed Yes1c5,769$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.840%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes28c3,587$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.8616624.1%40 W · 126 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c2,505$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6914212%17 W · 125 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-75.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf28e…3d19backed Yes2c2,453$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes18c1,999$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.811625%4 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes4c1,919$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44eb…c390backed Yes1c1,510$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2510…ce98backed Yes2c1,297$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes2c1,083$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.66644.7%3 W · 61 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-74.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c1,048$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1467232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010632.1%34 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2102010%2 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes2c882.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.082714.8%4 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28a2…05e7backed Yes3c714.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+24.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9995…771dbacked Yes2c700$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d17…44c2backed Yes3c667.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes20c620$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.88422.6%19 W · 65 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2db0…2f83backed Yes2c534$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e70…a586backed Yes3c476.29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes15c453.76$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.771,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes12c290$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.61872.2%13 W · 5 L+5.3wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+78.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No76c287.58$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.1150633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c4d…0b9abacked Yes37c267.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes30c253$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3912539.2%49 W · 76 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes12c238.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4336538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x241f…ef50backed Yes26c233$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.373821.1%8 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed No75c182$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.54540%18 W · 27 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2848…08f6backed Yes27c148.35$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No79c136$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.929753.6%52 W · 45 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x97f3…c807backed Yes43c133.93$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf385…4864backed No70c128.6$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.96966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed Yes28c120$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No72c120$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.62568%17 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed No68c110.7$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.992965.5%19 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…a23ebacked No67c105$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.652321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-62.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1eac…b542backed No78c104.78$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.781540%6 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6ef…c393backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes21c93.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.631717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-72.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed No68c93.22$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.83922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-68.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d6…fdd3backed No68c89.06$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.53842.1%16 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x920d…bb46backed Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes33c55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.159231.5%29 W · 63 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x87cd…6f2abacked No66c42$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.491266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No78c38.2$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2723041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63964.1%25 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3978…2f24backed No72c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.23868.4%26 W · 12 L+6.4wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+28.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.