Movies · resolved market
Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 95 and 97?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe47b20cb9edafa4c3fc4f079ab772054e56b96c8e040ec7c79fe296e64b40f26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 13c | 8,969$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.18 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…3d19backed Yes | 1c | 7,663$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4a…739cbacked Yes | 2c | 6,476$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,874$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 4,246$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d5…4739backed Yes | 1c | 4,128$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 12c | 1,435$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.19 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 1c | 1,252$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,165$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 64 | 4.7%3 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…ce98backed Yes | 3c | 1,022$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…771dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d17…44c2backed Yes | 1c | 912.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 889.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 639$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 24c | 554$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.08 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 3c | 523.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 12c | 437.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 36c | 397$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.7 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 72c | 240.77$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.42 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…0b9abacked Yes | 40c | 240.53$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked No | 54c | 230$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.8 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab0…1317backed Yes | 40c | 215$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 17c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked No | 64c | 155$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 136.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed No | 66c | 125$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 36c | 116.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 70c | 104.65$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fd…f3a5backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…e81fbacked Yes | 40c | 94.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 63c | 79.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed No | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…e7fdbacked Yes | 58c | 34.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 72c | 21.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 95 and 97?this page
- Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be 98 or higher?No won
- Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80 and 84?Yes won
- Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 85 and 89?No won
- Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 90 and 94?No won
- Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 80?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.