TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 85 and 89?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,308
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,787

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,308 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0407…e5c7backed Yes0c2,573$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes1c2,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256732.8%22 W · 45 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes3c1,990$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d6…fdd3backed No74c1,326$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.373842.1%16 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Yes1c974.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.79753.6%52 W · 45 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x46b7…b8c5backed Yes2c908.88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.79333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+92.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8514…d362backed Yes2c667.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08e2…71b1backed Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0910037%37 W · 63 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c498.11$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1967232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes3c453$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.771435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-48.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ab0…1317backed Yes19c330$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.71241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf638…2d28backed Yes5c326.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes19c283.08$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.791,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54e4…5d21backed Yes8c265.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+63.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28a2…05e7backed Yes8c261.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+24.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes35c250$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.548422.6%19 W · 65 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes7c168.93$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.161625%4 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9d5…4739backed Yes21c141.21$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes28c118.07$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7120049.5%99 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick36cpaid+2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87b3…dc02backed Yes19c86.74$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed Yes19c58.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.861286.3%8 W · 120 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-77.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x18ea…1a48backed Yes39c26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.222462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.