TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia enter Lyman by November 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$151,905
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$152,794

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,905 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 211 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc93c…52f1backed No32c9,288$3,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,275.0211839.8%47 W · 71 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No46c6,708$3,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,601.6812547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed Yes73c5,757$4,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,181.737356.2%41 W · 32 L+14.4wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+58.6%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No15c5,341$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,516.1814456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked Yes32c4,369$1,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,396.8413230.3%40 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes1c4,158$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.595123.5%12 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No19c2,906$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,341.5623435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd5…ef85backed Yes33c2,867$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c7e…3e52backed No76c2,503$1,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+69.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd547…f7a8backed Yes66c2,500$1,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,654757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+107.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No60c2,431$1,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.824258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes75c2,374$1,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,76925528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes33c2,200$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.313429.9%40 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked No74c1,900$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.637843.6%34 W · 44 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c97…4569backed Yes25c1,665$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.75133.3%17 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28a2…05e7backed No10c1,628$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,461.83922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+33.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f98…d72fbacked Yes39c1,540$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.3840%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ee4…fa88backed No64c1,497$962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.26580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa11b…f663backed No67c1,459$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.671580%12 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes28c1,453$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.3617232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No68c1,381$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.9911050.9%56 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fc0…4cadbacked No23c1,372$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.852176.2%16 W · 5 L+5.7wins+0.27per pick49cpaid+82.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes26c1,348$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.4825311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed No7c1,339$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,245.1711647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cc…9211backed No59c1,257$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.083366.7%22 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No42c1,184$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.0314147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes41c1,156$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.376639.4%26 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xca41…3af9backed Yes52c1,010$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.32433.3%8 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes30c1,000$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29610625.5%27 W · 79 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d5b…a70abacked Yes58c999.98$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.99250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x950a…b380backed Yes9c957.44$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.454810.4%5 W · 43 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes44c897.27$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.7735341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes49c892.95$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.0713622.8%31 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf477…1c28backed Yes34c863$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.853435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x727b…fdb5backed Yes60c794.26$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.991323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-45.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc135…21b0backed No67c762.57$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-50.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No54c758.41$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.8514750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce17…0131backed Yes78c750$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.32475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No55c739.41$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.4526238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6945…4402backed No16c721.87$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.581266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+110.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1312…cf45backed Yes37c653.76$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.931145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes53c651.82$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.4630837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No4c628$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.214920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed No14c572.72$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.727949.4%39 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes33c571.77$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.419413.8%13 W · 81 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed Yes64c562.47$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.218652.3%45 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe764…9ababacked Yes48c557.82$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.85333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes58c521.87$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.325143.1%22 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7be3…afa3backed Yes38c520.77$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.41742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes18c500$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.58615.1%13 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe95c…01efbacked No78c500$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.52450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e5a…747abacked Yes42c481.52$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41f2…d8efbacked No67c463.35$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.62475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf3…57f7backed Yes30c454.81$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.913834.2%13 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-2.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes57c437.57$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.5739429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes76c436.1$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.0615029.3%44 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bd2…c21bbacked Yes38c425.81$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.95728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-60.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed No16c412.69$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.924261.9%26 W · 16 L+8.1wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+50.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xebd7…d40bbacked No67c405.42$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.69862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+20.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked No57c400$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.22540%10 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked No69c359.99$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.553545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0149…fa64backed No13c350$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.8540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+150.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes3c339$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71f3…28d1backed No31c338.68$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.324252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde89…e378backed No20c334.01$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.93875%6 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+154.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe43b…3497backed Yes11c334$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9198…6b22backed Yes37c327.43$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1212352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22d7…84e0backed No12c325.19$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.191030%3 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick16cpaid+70.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b6…5561backed Yes60c314.84$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.341040%4 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-42.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x507c…4166backed No12c307$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.162536%9 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd5d…1614backed No72c290.83$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.832055%11 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed No13c289.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.195810.3%6 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22e2…42d6backed Yes34c286.19$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.274119.5%8 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-49.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes36c279.1$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9815451.3%79 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5f53…f7ecbacked Yes59c252.58$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x949e…b13abacked Yes40c251.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed No10c250$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2253658.3%21 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+41.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x198e…e8b1backed Yes55c248.03$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.63520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed No75c235$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.22666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8d…a1aebacked Yes35c229.85$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802540%10 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dd…f76dbacked Yes65c227.3$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.752653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5c2…1bbebacked No15c206.65$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.653745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd719…d8e5backed Yes27c203$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.68580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+46.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90e1…13ebbacked No27c198.45$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.044100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+119.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc4e2…1546backed No46c197.21$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.212347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes9c195.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.11156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-84.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes27c180.57$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6129416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes30c179.2$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.015327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44b6…e1bbbacked Yes45c178.84$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.73520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-68.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes12c176.41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8750%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes17c165.84$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.461741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No14c164.43$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.614239.4%56 W · 86 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9ea…a152backed Yes23c164$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf55…7d8abacked No77c164$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.23520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd937…cb9abacked No78c159.64$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.96560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x95da…60b4backed Yes36c155.29$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2690%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ecf…afe2backed No42c142.86$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.862119%4 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-67%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x82b9…c6cebacked No70c142.65$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.65250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No32c142.02$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.05757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf15…bdaebacked No71c140.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.21838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-36.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.