Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Rivnopillia by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefa03db106bd74b3629db0fefe8cfa1e573933d7d69d63a0f6814a7e076a892d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $141,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 6c | 8,868$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.93 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 8,608$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.46 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 8c | 7,613$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.19 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 5c | 6,095$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.76 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 3c | 4,654$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.01 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked No | 1c | 3,021$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 5c | 2,469$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 7c | 1,172$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.86 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 1,068$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 6c | 1,000$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…6958backed Yes | 51c | 927.89$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.61 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 27c | 820.93$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.51 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 765.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked No | 2c | 756.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…b226backed No | 7c | 710$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 5c | 589$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 5c | 563.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 68c | 540.27$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.69 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 4c | 333.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 4c | 286.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b48…35d0backed No | 10c | 260$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dba…c816backed No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9b…b62fbacked No | 8c | 236$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 6c | 226.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 30c | 212.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed No | 50c | 204.72$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.39 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…4402backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 55c | 189$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.45 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 43c | 164.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.32 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 54c | 157.32$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.53 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x758a…f23cbacked No | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 12c | 146.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x494c…1084backed No | 7c | 140.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc8…a8edbacked Yes | 55c | 140$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5222…d2f6backed Yes | 48c | 130$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…c4a9backed No | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 41c | 116.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4477…f52ebacked Yes | 68c | 104.04$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…86f8backed Yes | 45c | 69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7707…4fcbbacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 40c | 59.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa712…bcddbacked No | 31c | 54.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff3…c49fbacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ad…297abacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0d…c671backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c2…1bbebacked No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c39…bb62backed Yes | 58c | 35.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.24per pick | 63cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 32c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…8652backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03fe…b465backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a6…e5dbbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.