Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Siversk by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa92529a22b3395adeb534eb3a06db7292b0aa77deffc8cda2f9190027413c9eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $170,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b2…3ca0backed Yes | 61c | 20,558$12,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,042.86 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -28%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 38c | 19,078$7,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,222.58 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 7c | 7,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed No | 29c | 5,333$1,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,568.86 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 42c | 4,444$1,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,850.89 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 32c | 3,444$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.81 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 12c | 3,236$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.02 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed No | 35c | 2,558$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.36 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 15c | 2,266$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.2 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 45c | 2,251$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.28 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 2,193$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.59 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 60c | 1,838$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.54 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…f756backed No | 34c | 1,830$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.35 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a8…ec99backed No | 19c | 1,800$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed Yes | 63c | 1,695$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.2 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 39c | 1,595$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.85 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f0…ae31backed No | 1c | 1,446$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 8c | 1,444$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.84 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d0…57c5backed Yes | 78c | 1,406$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.96 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 72c | 1,400$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.99 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 18c | 1,303$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.22 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 74c | 1,239$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.56 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 2c | 1,214$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…fdb5backed Yes | 67c | 1,120$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.34 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…4402backed No | 17c | 1,086$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.12 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…3e9fbacked No | 3c | 1,076$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…c074backed Yes | 76c | 1,023$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.76 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 44c | 1,002$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.41 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed No | 21c | 1,000$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.16 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd116…be32backed Yes | 46c | 999.99$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 21c | 994.4$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.78 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed Yes | 70c | 993.86$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.86 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 76c | 959.47$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf477…1c28backed Yes | 63c | 946.83$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.06 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…c21bbacked Yes | 66c | 941.22$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63d1…27dfbacked Yes | 79c | 923.9$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.93 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked Yes | 70c | 907.47$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.58 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 40c | 891.49$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -27%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed No | 1c | 879.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf20c…8b9ebacked No | 2c | 827.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7b…160dbacked Yes | 68c | 738.43$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9057backed Yes | 70c | 687.79$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.22 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 58c | 641.19$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.57 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b7…4947backed Yes | 49c | 600.19$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.37 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaddc…ed0dbacked No | 41c | 598.01$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3205…4df1backed No | 12c | 592.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 67c | 569.3$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.3 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…65d8backed No | 47c | 533.91$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 9c | 530.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 9c | 484.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…bac0backed No | 33c | 476.66$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc236…73e5backed Yes | 76c | 475.26$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.22 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 67cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d70…02c5backed Yes | 69c | 470.83$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5c…2e8fbacked Yes | 63c | 444.93$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.23 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc56e…453cbacked No | 14c | 437.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed No | 29c | 429.98$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 39c | 405.74$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.3 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee9…eb86backed Yes | 49c | 405$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f3…28d1backed No | 36c | 397.04$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.53 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed No | 8c | 352.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f8…1092backed Yes | 77c | 328.41$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d83…93c5backed Yes | 61c | 328.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…59f7backed Yes | 63c | 310$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.3 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdec…532cbacked Yes | 78c | 293.5$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a0…727cbacked Yes | 76c | 292.56$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…d526backed No | 17c | 287.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 72c | 278.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 50c | 278.38$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.49 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +14.4wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 29c | 262.78$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.91 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 259.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7be3…afa3backed Yes | 58c | 258.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe9…d572backed No | 8c | 257.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked No | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5b…a70abacked Yes | 42c | 249.74$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…eea3backed No | 41c | 245.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e3…58edbacked No | 45c | 244.3$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a2…4cc2backed No | 19c | 212.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd369…9b9bbacked No | 52c | 203$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…436cbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5571…0346backed No | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…bd81backed No | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 21c | 198.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa903…bcd2backed No | 41c | 195.43$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…b13abacked Yes | 52c | 191.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cc…9211backed No | 44c | 185.6$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 76c | 181$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea13…b148backed Yes | 72c | 179.47$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.47 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…afe2backed No | 58c | 173.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 19c | 161.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a6…24b8backed Yes | 59c | 154.39$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.39 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 58c | 153.85$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…2373backed No | 17c | 151.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x544e…2d9fbacked Yes | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8a66…24f9backed No | 34c | 149.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…a1aebacked Yes | 54c | 149.28$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d46…c336backed Yes | 69c | 144.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 57cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f53…f7ecbacked Yes | 70c | 143.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Siversk by November 30?this page
- Will Russia enter Siversk by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.