TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

US x China tariff agreement by November 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$669,129
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$627,565

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $669,129 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 455 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1588…c68abacked No0c51,201$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf49…286dbacked No0c24,504$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.52633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90b5…d709backed No0c20,400$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8809…c603backed No5c20,115$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes74c14,232$10,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,682.9337844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x24f0…7ad4backed No35c14,070$4,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,927.45333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No2c13,783$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.28331.3%26 W · 57 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea10…b758backed No24c11,956$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,899.99728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11bc…d9fabacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbeb…8ae1backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaace…24c9backed No5c8,409$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff77…4b76backed No17c7,827$1,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,329.492035%7 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-30.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9e3…93f2backed No22c7,417$1,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,615.78425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09da…6dffbacked No9c6,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa31…2dd4backed No12c5,189$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a6d…cbacbacked Yes80c5,115$4,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.68850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No9c4,915$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.9213943.2%60 W · 79 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c04…3b06backed No5c4,510$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa81e…03dcbacked No14c4,164$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.59540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+66.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15a9…677ebacked No19c4,019$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7702412.5%3 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-48.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19e9…c8a5backed No5c4,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2521…e74bbacked No1c3,595$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbec2…05f9backed No15c3,517$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e98…1f51backed No21c3,302$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.3450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No7c3,194$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.6732029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5152…1c1fbacked No3c3,188$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed No18c3,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5401010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-69.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x741a…534ebacked No2c3,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06df…3b05backed No9c3,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+459.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed No7c2,787$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.092236.4%8 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x737e…8e9bbacked No25c2,759$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.44475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8881…4636backed No21c2,724$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56060%0 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed No22c2,626$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.992360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+198.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x509f…b73ebacked No4c2,516$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x797d…f6aabacked No16c2,502$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41d…8fe1backed No22c2,463$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550200%0 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd40d…5652backed No4c2,424$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd2…0bd8backed No14c2,329$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.47837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No10c2,308$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.082825%7 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes79c2,251$1,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.643652.8%19 W · 17 L+5.4wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+29.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed No10c2,240$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.072814.3%4 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0805…31c0backed No11c2,238$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.0530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e53…ba80backed No7c2,163$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.351711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-68.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ef3…5fdabacked No4c2,075$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad8e…709cbacked No18c2,073$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.73125.8%8 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-53.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c2,002$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.961,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdec…cf08backed No18c2,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50032626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e6b…9390backed No19c2,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.998127.2%22 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3507…afd0backed No3c1,935$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.24333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-55.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de7…b4a8backed No18c1,907$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5714…5822backed No14c1,853$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No25c1,837$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.1555618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f2f…21babacked No1c1,825$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81118.2%2 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick9cpaid+37.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4223…751bbacked No6c1,779$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No8c1,769$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.9418425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x038f…4535backed No29c1,750$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.8520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-61.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1029…61ffbacked No12c1,730$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed No25c1,711$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5bd…169abacked No11c1,653$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.59714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-71.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc4a…104fbacked No39c1,649$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-54.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e3…f4a0backed Yes73c1,610$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.31926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-50.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No14c1,529$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.4928320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed No23c1,500$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.671353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+23.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe8…0925backed No17c1,500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfebb…79bcbacked No19c1,456$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.02742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed No18c1,370$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.54195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-47.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed No9c1,283$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.444216.7%7 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-64.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7e6…4f99backed No20c1,276$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+79.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe77b…68e2backed No24c1,273$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No11c1,257$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.1396319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x31e8…8931backed No15c1,206$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4649…3c1bbacked No17c1,176$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes76c1,126$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.3314230.3%43 W · 99 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2aa2…36f6backed No5c1,100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60120%0 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ae…8adbbacked No24c1,085$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No11c1,077$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.6644111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8af2…0d0cbacked No30c1,047$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1091…a259backed No4c1,041$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.542222.7%5 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+37.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9a8…6d0abacked No3c1,032$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a31…7134backed No18c1,027$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6264…9937backed No10c1,024$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.783647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3eb…0829backed No2c1,022$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203023.3%7 W · 23 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-51.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9339…ed6fbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-56.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9491…3344backed Yes80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87c7…e71dbacked No8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x744a…6f1dbacked No3c989.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb24a…9ffdbacked No20c989.55$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes78c984.54$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.3435519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82bb…3105backed No19c980.76$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1881625%4 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-55.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe587…9d4dbacked No26c966.26$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5943…2ef2backed Yes78c959.64$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.323348.5%16 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5581…2574backed No9c957.67$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.19650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed Yes75c944.75$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.8514460.4%87 W · 57 L+16.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x389f…0c1dbacked No5c930.32$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x949e…b13abacked No22c914.39$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.13333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-14.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed No9c899.98$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.72015%3 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No20c897.96$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.5923639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8557…76aebacked No23c859.65$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.