Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran declare war on Israel before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb948e1738d72b05ea45bdfe468878c546843252d5d21f058931ca958b003c1ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $167,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 6c | 4,550$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.6 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5afd…7e8dbacked Yes | 6c | 4,324$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 4c | 4,082$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.43 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 2c | 4,011$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.42 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 9c | 3,396$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 3c | 3,376$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.04 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…5d20backed Yes | 11c | 3,079$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f03…2427backed Yes | 11c | 2,793$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,542$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3391…dfe0backed Yes | 8c | 2,500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…071cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,315$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.7 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 8c | 2,313$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.04 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5f…453abacked Yes | 5c | 2,114$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,001$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.1 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.99 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41dc…9c3dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 1c | 1,891$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Yes | 8c | 1,865$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.18 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc5…4914backed Yes | 4c | 1,710$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 7c | 1,693$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.64 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 7c | 1,555$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.04 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes | 10c | 1,554$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.21 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,445$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 1,406$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.9 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02e6…c14ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,397$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 12c | 1,262$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.72 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa074…f1c9backed Yes | 5c | 1,127$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,069$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 8c | 950$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 4c | 913.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6703…11cdbacked Yes | 13c | 845.46$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes | 6c | 820$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked Yes | 7c | 795$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…6600backed Yes | 2c | 738.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…9474backed Yes | 5c | 714.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce0…0c1cbacked Yes | 7c | 710.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…a121backed Yes | 11c | 706.93$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…4070backed Yes | 8c | 615$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…d78ebacked Yes | 5c | 610.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…6fd6backed Yes | 5c | 568.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…cce5backed Yes | 10c | 526.14$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecc…8422backed Yes | 10c | 510$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69c8…58cfbacked Yes | 6c | 502.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 5c | 453.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52c7…2ff9backed Yes | 9c | 443.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 419.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…c896backed Yes | 5c | 414.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a37…b78fbacked Yes | 5c | 412.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed Yes | 7c | 407.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 10c | 406.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…c971backed Yes | 5c | 402$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28cd…8454backed Yes | 13c | 393.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Yes | 4c | 370$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 10c | 345.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd0…eb9dbacked Yes | 11c | 335.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde2…5006backed Yes | 4c | 316.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +10.8wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…d34bbacked Yes | 9c | 276.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2f…d648backed Yes | 8c | 275$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 18cpaid | +194.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…1c76backed Yes | 5c | 267.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd22d…6e49backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -4.7wins | -0.29per pick | 35cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec2a…81c1backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a1…b63ebacked Yes | 12c | 242.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6775…780bbacked Yes | 5c | 214.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5193…cebcbacked Yes | 12c | 210.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…7b6cbacked Yes | 12c | 206.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 9c | 201$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…20c5backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…a9ffbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…9da2backed Yes | 8c | 199.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…995cbacked Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd38d…d877backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed Yes | 13c | 169$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeea…604dbacked Yes | 10c | 165.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac8…7a9ebacked Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef7a…f2bcbacked Yes | 13c | 130.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…d744backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2abb…0045backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf552…781cbacked Yes | 13c | 115.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139d…fe64backed Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x235d…4c6fbacked Yes | 10c | 101.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…0f2fbacked Yes | 11c | 100.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…978ebacked Yes | 13c | 82.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…63edbacked Yes | 14c | 78.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7f…be25backed No | 76c | 67.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.