Movies · resolved market
Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdac649c46e6dd8624b60b3537679c52423605e1b87d1c8683b603b4ccc1e6e35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed No | 79c | 4,681$3,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b8e1backed Yes | 21c | 4,681$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed No | 55c | 527.57$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.23 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 40c | 417.17$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.25 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 17c | 326$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 37c | 290$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.65 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e5…b7e6backed No | 71c | 254.18$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa232…175fbacked Yes | 5c | 232.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 8c | 174.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 149.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 137.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 15c | 134.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…35e5backed Yes | 24c | 126.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 45c | 122.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 35c | 118$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d6…f4dcbacked Yes | 53c | 110$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 38c | 103.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 97.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 32c | 83.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…beb8backed Yes | 27c | 74.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…abdfbacked Yes | 35c | 69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…99c7backed Yes | 31c | 48.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed Yes | 69c | 22.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?this page
- Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.