Movies · resolved market
Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d7e277ec9f582328a49807fca51547ca8a508ae659c2808da8438a8474a5ebb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 3c | 2,458$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.01 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,884$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…b46cbacked Yes | 53c | 213.44$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 48c | 142$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 13c | 132$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…8daabacked Yes | 27c | 130.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +273.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 97.8$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.88 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e5…b7e6backed No | 63c | 69.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb1…2856backed No | 79c | 59.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xadc6…d5e0backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +155.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff38…9ec6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…4b27backed No | 40c | 37.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?this page
- Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.