Fifa International · resolved market
Will Harry Kane score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86f6335589cf8474cd01fa66ea595a85a6596d34bea4087d6210e55348dbdbbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 30c | 649.89$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.44 | 341 | 51%174 W · 167 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 38c | 566.25$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.66 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 59c | 509.23$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.32 | 403 | 55.3%223 W · 180 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…5c91backed Yes | 67c | 499.99$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 36c | 387.9$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.25 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec52…59e8backed Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e2…9629backed No | 44c | 147.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x264f…cd38backed No | 11c | 113.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 64c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 65c | 50.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 23c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 311 | 71.4%222 W · 89 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…7a6ebacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…6e31backed Yes | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Yes | 54c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8b…35dcbacked Yes | 79c | 17.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Harry Kane score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will Harry Kane score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Harry Kane score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Harry Kane score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Harry Kane score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Harry Kane score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.