World Politics · resolved market
Will Nigel Farage win election to UK parliament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf72c6c1e44bcf0108ad3d126e41e5dac1bc27336d88edd13580b6cb0e38f2d93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $326,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $336,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $326,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 5c | 110,554$5,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,994.5 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 5c | 81,241$4,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,150.93 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 6c | 28,180$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,719.9 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 12c | 17,454$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,010.46 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed No | 4c | 11,610$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.22 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 10c | 8,687$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.84 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 8c | 6,234$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.1 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 4c | 5,463$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.41 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca62…fbfabacked No | 3c | 4,000$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No | 7c | 3,310$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.18 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed No | 5c | 2,998$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +106%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0f…c4e6backed No | 5c | 2,222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e2…9629backed No | 7c | 2,106$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 6c | 1,409$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.38 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes | 72c | 917.5$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.9 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba86…a66abacked Yes | 71c | 727.68$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…2353backed No | 12c | 726.23$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…47e1backed No | 6c | 574.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 76c | 501.06$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.83 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed No | 26c | 324.97$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.94 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x383a…c380backed No | 6c | 317.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…c60fbacked No | 6c | 238.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +249.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c8…1d90backed No | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe126…e3b7backed No | 8c | 169.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7612…a3cdbacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6a…8e55backed Yes | 74c | 107.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef6…a909backed No | 15c | 77.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 75c | 77.12$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed No | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6caf…f51cbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223d…fa18backed Yes | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.