AI · resolved market
GPT-5 not announced in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7aaca62c77ab866abe4e2f39d11b6b7362a274077c5a388c3bd04bda35e0257
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $417,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $428,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $417,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe999…6f77backed No | 29c | 54,985$15,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,772.92 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 9c | 16,622$1,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.16 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes | 40c | 12,588$5,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,497.6 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…1006backed No | 46c | 11,298$5,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,179.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca0…f349backed Yes | 54c | 9,574$5,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,403.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed No | 27c | 9,437$2,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,535.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bda…121bbacked Yes | 77c | 8,423$6,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,976.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…ffbebacked Yes | 52c | 8,344$4,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,038.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 69c | 7,713$5,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,421.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4910…c095backed Yes | 55c | 7,613$4,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,392.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 73c | 6,570$4,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,754.52 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…8805backed Yes | 65c | 6,327$4,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,243.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb849…fda3backed Yes | 53c | 4,153$2,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,955.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed Yes | 52c | 3,367$1,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,618.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d1…223abacked No | 71c | 3,034$2,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,166.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed No | 46c | 3,024$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.16 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 3c | 3,020$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.9 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed Yes | 72c | 2,973$2,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed Yes | 64c | 2,596$1,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf20c…42f0backed No | 9c | 2,576$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed No | 38c | 2,574$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 28c | 2,500$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533f…2ef1backed Yes | 58c | 2,036$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.79 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Yes | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d5…11dcbacked No | 46c | 1,956$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 52c | 1,900$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.07 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 1,795$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.3 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a3…9b79backed Yes | 71c | 1,675$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe51…3982backed Yes | 66c | 1,532$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe81f…5c9fbacked Yes | 64c | 1,494$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…ee29backed No | 31c | 1,278$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed No | 5c | 1,183$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41de…954bbacked Yes | 68c | 1,080$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 65c | 1,006$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed No | 46c | 1,003$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 60c | 1,000$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -7.2wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…0ff1backed No | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked No | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbf…74fdbacked Yes | 73c | 891.93$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 73c | 857.14$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 32c | 842.58$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…2d08backed No | 42c | 828.64$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…0626backed Yes | 50c | 819.09$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +454.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…8319backed Yes | 60c | 814.14$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 78c | 809.75$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.18 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed Yes | 28c | 802.72$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.96 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd0…4c12backed No | 51c | 709$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed Yes | 24c | 697.5$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.85 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 62c | 687.02$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked No | 5c | 685.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked No | 43c | 671.17$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…7b74backed Yes | 29c | 603.45$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f9…9d8ebacked Yes | 62c | 600$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f53…fa57backed No | 71c | 600$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3765…c121backed Yes | 70c | 578.44$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6b…a799backed Yes | 62c | 563.47$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.9 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 20c | 508.42$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.19 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6e…18dfbacked Yes | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 41c | 446.03$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.68 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 53c | 426.23$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.33 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…a395backed Yes | 61c | 415$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 7c | 410.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…fa31backed Yes | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x636b…1c55backed No | 44c | 390.44$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 4c | 367.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa183…2663backed Yes | 41c | 358.63$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +47%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 6c | 353.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3379…c283backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7a…65a6backed Yes | 59c | 313.11$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa5…7e01backed Yes | 63c | 312.87$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed Yes | 72c | 300$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180f…4427backed No | 38c | 270$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3b…aea3backed Yes | 76c | 266.41$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…4973backed No | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…5554backed Yes | 64c | 247.39$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab20…65fabacked No | 62c | 247.32$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d5…682bbacked Yes | 68c | 244$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1a…1b5bbacked Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed No | 40c | 238.08$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb620…dd7abacked No | 34c | 227.27$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6410…64a3backed Yes | 66c | 227.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1529…649abacked No | 44c | 209.38$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed Yes | 72c | 209$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…8ce6backed Yes | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d0…a88dbacked Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb810…b043backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…7b59backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58fa…5a5abacked No | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e4…ce20backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbe…0317backed Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d91…186ebacked Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 19c | 179.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb09e…ee4bbacked Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 55c | 166.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.58 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GPT-5 not announced in 2024?this page
- GPT-5 announced in Q2 2024?No won
- GPT-5 announced in Q3 2024?No won
- GPT-5 announced in Q4 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.