AI · resolved market
GPT-5 announced in Q2 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9ea84139f0755473c01dd4890d4d95525ba2e5916006cfec37f8a3ad2c5b96d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe999…6f77backed Yes | 7c | 5,226$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.34 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 6c | 4,841$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.11 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d43…ac2bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6c…5140backed Yes | 5c | 2,975$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed Yes | 11c | 2,300$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf863…5bc1backed Yes | 6c | 2,096$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb011…2d13backed Yes | 15c | 1,502$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a55…6a8ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85dd…eeb6backed Yes | 5c | 999.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x694e…6f26backed Yes | 4c | 972$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 10c | 540.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf154…c7cabacked Yes | 11c | 468.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd9…f138backed Yes | 4c | 269$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d1…223abacked Yes | 20c | 207.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6b…a799backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a2…bdc5backed Yes | 11c | 92.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…9c89backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3c…1613backed No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GPT-5 announced in Q2 2024?this page
- GPT-5 announced in Q3 2024?No won
- GPT-5 announced in Q4 2024?No won
- GPT-5 not announced in 2024?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.