AI · resolved market
GPT-5 announced in Q3 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb706e15f1b9b0eb0535956ba88c2e0be756ffa6cdf45d14f6a36a8f783548b1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $354,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $304,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $354,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 5c | 30,333$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,462 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0002…5e91backed Yes | 8c | 23,245$1,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,888.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141d…2e42backed Yes | 9c | 22,363$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c1…768dbacked Yes | 12c | 11,763$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc587…9d3fbacked Yes | 9c | 11,512$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a55…6a8ebacked Yes | 4c | 10,222$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…4973backed Yes | 10c | 6,950$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe999…6f77backed Yes | 9c | 6,292$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.94 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 6c | 5,237$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…f8d9backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…9b4ebacked Yes | 15c | 4,999$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 4,981$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.45 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes | 2c | 3,807$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf20c…35c4backed Yes | 10c | 3,599$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2217…2419backed Yes | 11c | 3,514$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…f429backed Yes | 12c | 3,235$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ba…865dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,967$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 8c | 2,584$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 14c | 2,510$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.84 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3086…3d51backed Yes | 8c | 2,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5355…dad2backed Yes | 12c | 2,364$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd36b…f389backed Yes | 9c | 2,222$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec8f…a260backed Yes | 9c | 1,805$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…2822backed Yes | 9c | 1,632$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071e…b2b3backed Yes | 12c | 1,624$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533f…2ef1backed Yes | 3c | 1,561$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 8c | 1,475$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa417…3ac9backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc116…eb3fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,335$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bd…df6ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e74…fbfcbacked Yes | 8c | 1,187$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 3c | 1,175$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30e7…d258backed Yes | 11c | 999.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed No | 79c | 856.83$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.73 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…0fe7backed Yes | 1c | 856.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f99…57f8backed Yes | 8c | 837.05$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0c…7fc2backed Yes | 7c | 824$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…35d2backed Yes | 11c | 780$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f73…7933backed Yes | 9c | 747.78$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0d…caefbacked Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…cff0backed Yes | 3c | 605.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6691…17cfbacked No | 17c | 581.77$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…16f2backed Yes | 4c | 558.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…95f4backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…73ccbacked No | 75c | 553.93$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa076…8d19backed Yes | 7c | 550$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x639b…99e7backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a79…f197backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x498e…2394backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf96e…a416backed Yes | 15c | 482.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b7…f7d7backed Yes | 10c | 450$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf63…0cd9backed Yes | 11c | 445.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0677…ac39backed Yes | 18c | 438.1$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…2290backed Yes | 13c | 414.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaedb…99cebacked Yes | 7c | 379.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf12…2475backed Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ce…cfa1backed Yes | 7c | 371.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee95…02ddbacked Yes | 8c | 370$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…2d08backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d1…223abacked No | 69c | 319.76$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd9…f138backed Yes | 7c | 313.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…b6b5backed Yes | 8c | 298.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd0…4c12backed Yes | 17c | 280$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…75dabacked Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad83…6796backed Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6765…1416backed Yes | 7c | 267.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3634…310dbacked Yes | 12c | 262.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ac…480fbacked Yes | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d9…5354backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf313…ebf7backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…efd7backed Yes | 12c | 215.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 62c | 205$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x87f9…9d8ebacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf154…c7cabacked Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…d744backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x069d…0089backed Yes | 12c | 166.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes | 8c | 162.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce9…59d3backed No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…a21bbacked Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…d3ecbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…9c89backed Yes | 41c | 122.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ea…e8b2backed Yes | 10c | 101.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2efc…5686backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfff…e084backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0782…616dbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6b…a799backed No | 70c | 92.69$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb484…12dbbacked Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x753b…1b94backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…52b6backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5218…4b51backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…168ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8844…b672backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85cd…9a76backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a2…bdc5backed Yes | 38c | 39.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GPT-5 announced in Q3 2024?this page
- GPT-5 announced in Q2 2024?No won
- GPT-5 announced in Q4 2024?No won
- GPT-5 not announced in 2024?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.