AI · resolved market
GPT-5 announced in Q4 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $571,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $511,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $571,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 228 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes | 6c | 53,893$3,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,312.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe999…6f77backed Yes | 27c | 39,494$10,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,492.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bda…121bbacked No | 70c | 33,658$23,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,991.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 7c | 29,413$2,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,113.06 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 12c | 23,993$2,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,826.85 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 2c | 20,068$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.93 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…bf90backed Yes | 10c | 19,525$1,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,906.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 0c | 18,648$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 2c | 12,100$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce9…8a7cbacked Yes | 6c | 9,596$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 4c | 5,520$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.88 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 69c | 5,033$3,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,562.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 4,771$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.42 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Yes | 5c | 4,633$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +525%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 29c | 4,016$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…f429backed Yes | 34c | 3,773$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 5c | 2,902$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.32 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf20c…42f0backed Yes | 8c | 2,889$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed Yes | 25c | 2,815$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed Yes | 4c | 2,476$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed Yes | 9c | 2,335$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x132b…be94backed Yes | 10c | 2,266$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.46 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acc…f86cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,210$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed Yes | 22c | 2,200$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…18bdbacked Yes | 8c | 2,159$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 11c | 1,941$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.72 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 5c | 1,746$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed Yes | 5c | 1,599$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8054…2d44backed No | 73c | 1,506$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 1,446$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.75 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes | 7c | 1,401$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 3c | 1,389$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…9971backed Yes | 37c | 1,359$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3caa…4a19backed No | 74c | 1,326$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed No | 70c | 1,271$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed No | 80c | 1,240$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.84 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e74…fbfcbacked Yes | 33c | 1,212$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 5c | 1,172$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82c2…e275backed Yes | 26c | 1,168$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcec…9ffdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,159$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b1…e836backed Yes | 9c | 1,128$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbf…74fdbacked No | 73c | 1,054$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,006$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…89f3backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed No | 64c | 952.81$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.01 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78ca…2f89backed Yes | 5c | 939.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba2…4126backed Yes | 5c | 930.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd848…626fbacked Yes | 6c | 928.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe415…db17backed Yes | 6c | 907.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa417…3ac9backed Yes | 31c | 886.48$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 34c | 826.99$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.17 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked Yes | 9c | 809.54$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50f…80c0backed Yes | 23c | 800$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d45…73bcbacked Yes | 4c | 794.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 6c | 775.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4b…4748backed Yes | 8c | 708.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6e…18dfbacked Yes | 33c | 679.1$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb810…b043backed Yes | 34c | 672.34$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed No | 66c | 667.16$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401b…3107backed Yes | 6c | 656.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Yes | 27c | 644.46$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed No | 72c | 630$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a74…09d5backed Yes | 8c | 626.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…ee29backed Yes | 34c | 608.24$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3210…0fc4backed Yes | 23c | 600$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe2…580abacked Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be4…e2f2backed Yes | 36c | 552.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad35…c926backed Yes | 22c | 547.61$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed No | 65c | 499.99$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked No | 67c | 497.55$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d33…5aecbacked Yes | 5c | 479.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…7222backed Yes | 24c | 450$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d1…223abacked Yes | 16c | 420$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1a…7077backed Yes | 7c | 409.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5c…8283backed Yes | 6c | 407.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f08…a742backed Yes | 35c | 406$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…201bbacked Yes | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3765…c121backed No | 64c | 400$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…2b76backed Yes | 22c | 399.12$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…a5a6backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fd…de17backed Yes | 8c | 367.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c05…850abacked Yes | 15c | 336.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x232f…a5afbacked Yes | 31c | 329.51$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ef…da30backed Yes | 38c | 329.13$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…b6b5backed Yes | 31c | 321.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8129…45c2backed Yes | 6c | 320.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x199d…589abacked No | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd0…4c12backed Yes | 33c | 316.95$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd95f…a6b0backed Yes | 50c | 315.76$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.09 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0dd…8c7fbacked Yes | 21c | 315$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…9370backed Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8837…7108backed Yes | 7c | 305.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 4c | 302.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…65d1backed Yes | 22c | 295.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5c…5d56backed No | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d3…b187backed Yes | 7c | 287.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0705…9dfcbacked Yes | 12c | 286.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x822c…c8e8backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GPT-5 announced in Q4 2024?this page
- GPT-5 announced in Q2 2024?No won
- GPT-5 announced in Q3 2024?No won
- GPT-5 not announced in 2024?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.