Premier League · resolved market
Erik ten Hag out as Manchester United manager?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf83c9d579881ab305a2c546d388aaead5da3d0245e57b40f2338515b59df80b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 19c | 765.3$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.75 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 50c | 683.28$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.29 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 72c | 329.95$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e2…9629backed No | 8c | 321.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +198.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Yes | 70c | 300$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4c…2a53backed No | 12c | 277.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.63 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +128.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…507ebacked No | 47c | 225$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked No | 76c | 212.26$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005d…08bdbacked Yes | 75c | 197.82$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 66c | 149.92$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad8…4cb1backed Yes | 49c | 100.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…013ebacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked No | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked No | 34c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed No | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed Yes | 54c | 66.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…5700backed No | 75c | 60.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 168 | 48.8%82 W · 86 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcec5…dae8backed No | 33c | 48.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b3…b73bbacked Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0a…6702backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…9d70backed Yes | 50c | 32.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +224.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4432…9350backed Yes | 57c | 19.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 67c | 17.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7e…bd43backed No | 65c | 17.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe3…aef9backed Yes | 68c | 16.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Erik ten Hag out as Manchester United manager?this page
- Pochettino out as Chelsea manger?Yes won
- Postecoglou out as Tottenham Manager?No won
- Tuchel out as Bayern Munich Manager?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.