Us Politics · resolved market
Trump convicted of felony before Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x651ad058f0d3faed9d5b5447320530554a1a6a2dfba1769ef9234161980bfe69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $172,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 80c | 26,637$21,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,338.28 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes | 76c | 7,164$5,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,724.86 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8946…1b70backed No | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…39a8backed No | 22c | 5,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa149…0e92backed No | 24c | 4,897$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 77c | 4,583$3,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.75 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed No | 20c | 3,591$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.21 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 21c | 3,227$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.59 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 69c | 2,561$1,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.77 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d95…92c1backed No | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 21c | 2,381$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b37…6962backed No | 25c | 2,148$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.95 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Yes | 79c | 1,810$1,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.07 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc729…5faabacked No | 26c | 1,783$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2162…55dcbacked No | 28c | 1,704$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed No | 28c | 1,697$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.35 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 21c | 1,644$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.27 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd31a…386ebacked No | 23c | 1,585$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b93…3c34backed No | 29c | 1,440$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 15cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 22c | 1,323$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.51 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…bfc5backed Yes | 74c | 1,208$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.18 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee62…86ffbacked No | 22c | 1,136$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Yes | 60c | 1,132$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.34 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…f4aabacked Yes | 76c | 1,120$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -78%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked No | 23c | 1,072$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.34 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9330…a52bbacked No | 18c | 1,015$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc79…79e3backed No | 20c | 1,011$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 67c | 1,008$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked No | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74c…fe69backed Yes | 72c | 941.1$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…46d5backed Yes | 76c | 867$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…c260backed No | 21c | 800$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…d06dbacked No | 27c | 754.42$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 75c | 678.99$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.54 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…ad04backed No | 21c | 644.04$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…e696backed No | 24c | 528$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4b…0590backed No | 17c | 510$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…da79backed Yes | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bce…e7cdbacked No | 22c | 458.73$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…8553backed Yes | 75c | 406.05$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.51 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…04b7backed No | 36c | 400$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed No | 24c | 400$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked No | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9169…3aaabacked No | 27c | 368.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed No | 28c | 365$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.65 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…9da2backed No | 15c | 333$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…ebb1backed No | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed No | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e2…9629backed No | 28c | 279.47$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…ea28backed No | 22c | 231.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 42c | 222$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…28ffbacked No | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -77%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf53f…9fa3backed No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…a2cdbacked No | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…d92cbacked Yes | 65c | 154.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb078…0752backed No | 18c | 135.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbba…7e88backed No | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e63…399abacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.36per pick | 52cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd747…d4c2backed No | 23c | 99.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -60%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca3…91f1backed No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2d…a277backed No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94f…44d2backed No | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e51…7538backed No | 27c | 82.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 36c | 72.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 79c | 71.65$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e0…46fcbacked No | 31c | 63.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9377…aed8backed No | 21c | 61.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1d…f471backed Yes | 70c | 56.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +120.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf42…5cbcbacked No | 23c | 52.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bf…d0a0backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe31…b70ebacked No | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3a…1da9backed No | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0364…8061backed Yes | 72c | 40.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…057fbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f0…f9f3backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea03…0aa1backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ec…24cebacked No | 41c | 37.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d3…5545backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…9d70backed Yes | 78c | 28.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 78cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.