TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Aston Villa win the 2024-25 FA Cup?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$139,964
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$138,045

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,964 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x257c…2cfebacked Yes19c60,150$11,429 inLost-$11,428.520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4344…caefbacked Yes22c5,494$1,235 inLost-$1,235.081435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed No78c2,169$1,699 inWon+$470.059917.2%17 W · 82 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5327…3b80backed Yes17c2,059$340 inLost-$339.995740.4%23 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes16c729.85$119 inLost-$119.373836.8%14 W · 24 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-31.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1e2…9629backed Yes14c306.99$44 inLost-$43.82757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+198.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f39…8ad7backed Yes28c271.29$75 inLost-$75728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2388…a491backed Yes20c250$50 inLost-$501118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-68.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43e8…5ba4backed Yes18c226.92$40 inLost-$4011019.1%21 W · 89 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c222.63$21 inLost-$20.942037.4%15 W · 188 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-57.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6274…1221backed Yes20c170$34 inLost-$3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x056a…611fbacked Yes21c169.49$35 inLost-$35.317638.2%29 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddc9…7870backed Yes13c153.85$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x663f…bb92backed No75c133.33$100 inWon+$33.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d87…8b51backed Yes26c114.91$30 inLost-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8182…1a71backed Yes19c105.26$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes14c103$14 inLost-$14.17139.4%28 W · 43 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f0a…2bbdbacked Yes26c100$26 inLost-$2670%0 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2c16…31eabacked Yes20c78.85$16 inLost-$15.771020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-36.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2158…7941backed Yes33c76.39$25 inLost-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x369b…5129backed Yes25c50$13 inLost-$12.52213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3c1…ef8fbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed Yes24c45$11 inLost-$10.790751.3%465 W · 442 L-1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No62c26.32$16 inWon+$10742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.