TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Nottingham Forest win the 2024-25 FA Cup?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,449
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,706

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,449 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e5f…bf45backed Yes8c1,819$150 inLost-$1509235.9%33 W · 59 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes11c1,573$168 inLost-$168.49917.2%17 W · 82 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2388…a491backed Yes9c1,122$101 inLost-$1011118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-68.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa02e…84a0backed Yes9c1,000$90 inLost-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes9c798.96$75 inLost-$74.976939.1%27 W · 42 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes7c797.83$56 inLost-$55.851136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3d…498abacked Yes10c791.5$83 inLost-$82.513630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked Yes9c555.56$50 inLost-$506051.7%31 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d51…f56cbacked Yes8c490$39 inLost-$39.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e5…c8ebbacked Yes7c420$31 inLost-$30.620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee9d…63e1backed Yes9c385.33$35 inLost-$34.685050%25 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c362.13$16 inLost-$16.312037.4%15 W · 188 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-57.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x112a…c789backed Yes13c300$39 inLost-$3920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f39…8ad7backed Yes17c291.33$50 inLost-$50728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6442…ccbabacked Yes8c222$18 inLost-$17.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes14c202.15$29 inLost-$29.1566031.2%206 W · 454 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4344…caefbacked Yes13c193.88$25 inLost-$25.21435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04f2…6fe4backed Yes13c184.87$24 inLost-$23.742755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c16…31eabacked Yes8c183.78$15 inLost-$151020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-36.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43e8…5ba4backed Yes9c174.11$15 inLost-$1511019.1%21 W · 89 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1093…cf2abacked Yes7c170$12 inLost-$11.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c44…db63backed Yes20c100$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e37…03d2backed Yes14c92.86$13 inLost-$13333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c42…9ce3backed Yes15c73.33$11 inLost-$113551.4%18 W · 17 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+31.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.