TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,766
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,840

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,766 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb85…152fbacked Yes43c23,357$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0003842.1%16 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79b4…fc3dbacked No60c20,208$12,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,101.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+78%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked No57c9,707$5,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,185.968353%44 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x036b…ead4backed No58c3,726$2,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,572.39837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-36.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed No56c3,306$1,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,464.8990553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked No57c2,625$1,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.722846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No56c1,910$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.4137152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed No57c1,766$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.4623537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2f2…0ff7backed No30c1,560$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.062100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+306.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5cbc…1d39backed Yes43c1,163$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50017841.6%74 W · 104 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes43c860.42$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.981241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15e5…d3febacked Yes43c837$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.911838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a85…9b97backed Yes42c818.24$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.66540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+120.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Yes43c783.6$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33726140.6%106 W · 155 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x76c1…3aa5backed Yes42c714.29$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30070%0 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes41c599.99$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24633948.1%163 W · 176 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0100…9babbacked Yes43c581.4$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+114%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dc5…eae8backed Yes43c581.4$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04c…86f2backed Yes44c544.07$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6759…95a7backed Yes43c515.23$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.55812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick33cpaid-77.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No53c512.96$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.974348.8%21 W · 22 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed No59c505$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.088551.8%44 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaa94…e52ebacked Yes45c495.17$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86eb…d1f6backed Yes43c465.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe523…f087backed Yes43c462.47$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20019152.9%101 W · 90 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+20.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6c1…51aabacked Yes44c454.55$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+37.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No57c441.26$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.538353.3%204 W · 179 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0431…0d4dbacked Yes49c409.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa614…0bafbacked Yes43c400$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ff…0505backed Yes47c375.76$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.71933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3430…65cdbacked Yes42c357.14$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501540%6 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5414…a31abacked Yes43c356.63$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.35475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aae…03afbacked Yes48c312.5$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc861…ba40backed Yes43c273.81$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.742157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…05e9backed No60c270.33$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.43862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6266…a955backed Yes43c250.02$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97b2…7a1dbacked Yes45c244.44$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid+24.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e4a…d19ebacked Yes44c234.18$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5233…37c1backed Yes43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffc1…4bcbbacked Yes43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92eb…642cbacked Yes43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+23.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaec9…8709backed Yes43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid0%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0336…4bb0backed No60c226.35$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.576100%6 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+96%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xefc3…9a94backed Yes45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001850%9 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f4a…afd7backed Yes44c221.61$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.512420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed No53c221.32$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.023961.5%24 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c66…1f76backed Yes46c213.57$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe255…c8a6backed Yes43c207.21$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+138.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66c2…85f4backed Yes44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8840%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d35…45adbacked Yes43c198.12$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.19333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No55c194.9$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.711761.5%72 W · 45 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Yes43c186.05$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8015556.8%88 W · 67 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb05d…bc1abacked Yes43c186.05$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+58.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf509…86dcbacked Yes43c183.4$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.861752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x755a…9748backed Yes43c174.42$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7513647.1%64 W · 72 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed No53c170$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.97850%39 W · 39 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfff4…c614backed Yes43c165.12$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5960…d692backed Yes43c150$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.55552.7%29 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1994…b4e5backed Yes32c150$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.51526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca85…7453backed Yes43c148.84$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641540%6 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…822abacked Yes43c142.3$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8073…b829backed Yes42c141.69$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bd9…d4ecbacked Yes43c137.7$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+138.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01ae…55f8backed Yes44c136.36$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes43c129.75$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.434643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5637…f48abacked Yes48c125$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid+9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b22…43efbacked Yes45c122.22$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No55c120.18$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0817524%42 W · 133 L-22.3wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbd8e…3c8bbacked Yes42c119.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.39742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick66cpaid-44%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ef2…9238backed Yes42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22a9…97babacked Yes42c118.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe6e0…0a44backed Yes42c116.43$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b45…b98abacked Yes43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+140.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbfc…b095backed Yes43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-54.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x43dc…37f1backed Yes43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-37.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x657d…4893backed Yes43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-30.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14fd…2251backed Yes42c114$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd30…a9a4backed Yes44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-35.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7310…8d54backed Yes45c111.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+50.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50e3…3279backed Yes45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-57.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2984…faa3backed Yes44c109.57$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e35…8a05backed Yes46c107.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab22…c3f6backed Yes47c106.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502050%10 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-10%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes45c102.6$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5913836.2%50 W · 88 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0157…a97ebacked Yes43c102.33$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed No39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b6c…2352backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+77.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed No57c99.99$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0a2…b58ebacked Yes43c98.81$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked No56c98.46$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.327256.9%41 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes14c90.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.012133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6300…7b4fbacked Yes43c90.7$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+46.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5825…b6c5backed Yes42c83.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x835a…67e3backed Yes43c81.4$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae10…16c4backed Yes43c81.17$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-35.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x497a…cd8bbacked Yes43c78.84$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.91546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d6a…3dd1backed Yes42c77.71$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9253…0baebacked No65c76.98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+77%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8741…5b0abacked No55c76.88$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.