UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa112ef17d910c495fcb300210f5472c099627ffa3806c564034dcd0f033a3cf6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 38c | 21,175$8,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,119.25 | 200 | 48.5%97 W · 103 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd6…1fa0backed Over | 62c | 12,147$7,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,531 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Over | 62c | 12,144$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 40c | 7,532$2,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,554.37 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…da86backed Under | 40c | 6,250$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,750 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Over | 60c | 5,760$3,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,456 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Under | 39c | 5,000$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,049.98 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 60c | 3,807$2,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,283.99 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1518…2652backed Over | 61c | 3,500$2,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,134.98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Over | 61c | 1,300$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.31 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 60c | 992.5$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.5 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 38c | 837.99$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.55 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 39c | 672.88$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.09 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x605b…b479backed Over | 61c | 559.43$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…a75cbacked Under | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.32 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Under | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…7f09backed Over | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed Over | 61c | 409.84$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Under | 37c | 392.29$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Over | 68c | 294.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…76e2backed Over | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x583d…d79bbacked Under | 40c | 191.63$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.89 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Over | 60c | 150.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Over | 61c | 150$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…e58cbacked Over | 61c | 132.58$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe065…d1debacked Under | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Under | 25c | 113.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.12 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d7…cfe0backed Over | 62c | 101.15$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3056…36c6backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…724dbacked Over | 61c | 90$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1133…16a8backed Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce7c…17cfbacked Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…c14abacked Under | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf07f…9a2cbacked Over | 61c | 72.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 61c | 68.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 417 | 54%225 W · 192 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 41c | 65.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 106 | 64.2%68 W · 38 L | +13.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…4db8backed Under | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a7…2255backed Under | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…8709backed Under | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0431…ca12backed Under | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Over | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e1…f41dbacked Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d8f5backed Over | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x171f…7dd0backed Under | 40c | 49.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7dd…12f0backed Over | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked Over | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497a…cd8bbacked Under | 39c | 46.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de2…cd3fbacked Over | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b8…3446backed Under | 40c | 37.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 38c | 37.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…0da7backed Over | 61c | 36.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3155…268ebacked Over | 59c | 34.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a66…2c23backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3341…5187backed Under | 39c | 33.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x502d…d791backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9330…b993backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04c…bdf3backed Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…df71backed Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b7…6c4fbacked Under | 44c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 167 | 36.5%61 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7810…b011backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe344…7060backed Over | 61c | 24.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…84b5backed Over | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Over | 58c | 20.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Over | 52c | 19.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -6.5wins | -0.33per pick | 43cpaid | -83%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x37f4…49afbacked Over | 60c | 18.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)Ciryl Gane won
- Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.