UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2ce82fd148c31aedb6291d70c7a0287327493071ccf86b3c4b0b7dca09de342
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224f…514abacked No | 35c | 5,000$1,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,724.95 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Yes | 67c | 3,728$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.95 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 30c | 1,041$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.15 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 31c | 800$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked No | 29c | 495.06$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.57 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…21fbbacked Yes | 71c | 488.02$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.53 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +7.4wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Yes | 64c | 344.09$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.87 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 34c | 340.45$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.89 | 381 | 53.5%204 W · 177 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…6cf1backed Yes | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 64c | 300$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.6 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd47f…b15cbacked Yes | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…9206backed Yes | 67c | 223.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3d…52cbbacked Yes | 64c | 157.78$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f3…d5e9backed Yes | 64c | 157.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 64cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x15c6…c9dcbacked Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b7…b0b3backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3922…0670backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…2cd2backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…e1d2backed Yes | 64c | 135.66$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…0b3bbacked Yes | 66c | 123.49$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 114.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f72…e1bfbacked No | 54c | 112.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 42c | 108.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…3953backed Yes | 69c | 104.83$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ad…aaa3backed Yes | 70c | 87.14$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 66c | 82.01$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c15…ca95backed Yes | 67c | 73.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a1…d6ecbacked Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b62…c3cbbacked Yes | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9b…6e0fbacked Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad71…43f5backed Yes | 63c | 40.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9c…1762backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d9…995abacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cca…2407backed Yes | 70c | 29.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 54c | 26.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6af…fc2fbacked Yes | 64c | 23.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf804…6e13backed Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe232…6ceabacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b5…69c7backed Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01b…f0ffbacked Yes | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc290…1234backed Yes | 64c | 16.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 69c | 14.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)Ciryl Gane won
- Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.