Premier League · resolved market
Will Belgium win?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe409b94e54b822334d3fc5b492cef4c3f621ced4f9464c1e8a1cf8e60243b992
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,676 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5975…6820backed Yes | 80c | 4,351$3,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 11c | 2,101$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.87 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed No | 29c | 1,400$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…998dbacked Yes | 72c | 1,030$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.9 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked No | 29c | 847.62$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.81 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17c1…a606backed Yes | 67c | 792.2$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.63 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c41…deedbacked Yes | 73c | 413.7$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9b…9a48backed Yes | 71c | 383.24$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1666…ba7bbacked No | 34c | 265.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…a19bbacked Yes | 69c | 205$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 420 | 43.8%184 W · 236 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcba…04ddbacked Yes | 69c | 192.75$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed Yes | 69c | 126.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41dc…fecbbacked Yes | 72c | 114.3$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff2…4cc5backed Yes | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…2b5dbacked Yes | 71c | 64.72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa764…b08ebacked Yes | 71c | 47.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…7af1backed Yes | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x289a…1909backed Yes | 71c | 30.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -49%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x176b…1fe9backed Yes | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64e…0de6backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…b1d1backed Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Belgium win?this page
- Will Romania win?No won
- Will the match be a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.