Ukraine · resolved market
Will Israel win Eurovision 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d6ffe1a0cc40fc1663145457b39208efd741424a648cbca6a2f57fdc6e0cd10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x732a…55d3backed No | 79c | 12,611$9,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,639.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +309.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 2c | 7,204$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.23 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 8c | 5,203$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.39per pick | 32cpaid | +289.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5975…6820backed Yes | 22c | 3,981$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…7e9ebacked Yes | 32c | 3,773$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 3c | 3,131$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.26 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…5055backed No | 68c | 3,091$2,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1cd8backed Yes | 24c | 3,053$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…9566backed Yes | 24c | 2,955$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d8…1fc6backed Yes | 24c | 2,008$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…09ebbacked Yes | 2c | 1,818$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…816fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,660$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 3c | 1,605$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e41…cf4dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,515$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae11…2947backed No | 75c | 1,467$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…0aebbacked Yes | 21c | 1,388$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa357…1045backed Yes | 3c | 1,265$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7e…5b3cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,086$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 1,025$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x172a…d758backed Yes | 25c | 1,008$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…3d37backed Yes | 25c | 999.92$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 4c | 817.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 40cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5771backed No | 76c | 798.7$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c5…3a81backed No | 79c | 759.49$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes | 27c | 759.22$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.28 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes | 2c | 692.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x818f…638bbacked Yes | 14c | 688$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5665…29d4backed Yes | 25c | 668.36$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 13c | 656.8$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.87 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dd…1316backed Yes | 11c | 551.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…748cbacked Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…df9fbacked Yes | 8c | 437.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe583…0691backed Yes | 21c | 419$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bf…d0a0backed Yes | 24c | 414.02$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…fd07backed Yes | 25c | 378.08$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x468d…6782backed No | 79c | 346.95$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a0…2c5abacked Yes | 4c | 291.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…becdbacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Yes | 25c | 221.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…0246backed Yes | 25c | 218.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4a…0306backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ac…480fbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…ed1fbacked No | 75c | 196.76$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9943…3360backed Yes | 26c | 138.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked Yes | 28c | 135.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1d…df92backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da7…ba93backed Yes | 20c | 112.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…d297backed Yes | 24c | 104.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +174.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c5…923dbacked Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -65%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb078…0752backed Yes | 25c | 104$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 23c | 102.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…e881backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…ffefbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0d…9c13backed Yes | 25c | 97.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaa…fad2backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…2f89backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…3c92backed Yes | 24c | 82.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +167.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6a…8e55backed No | 78c | 80.1$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d32…c37fbacked Yes | 22c | 74.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…8595backed Yes | 33c | 60.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…c85ebacked No | 69c | 60.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…6f2fbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1713…6dd6backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd20…0a29backed Yes | 32c | 45.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f329backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae3…6537backed No | 78c | 34.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel win Eurovision 2024?this page
- Will Armenia win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Australia win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Austria win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Belgium win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Croatia win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Finland win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will France win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Georgia win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Greece win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Iceland win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Ireland win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Italy win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Norway win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Poland win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Spain win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Sweden win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2024?Yes won
- Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will another country win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will the United Kingdom win Eurovision 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.