Ukraine · resolved market
Will another country win Eurovision 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e1fc7f640aee0025d1af104f397f2a845a0245afe37a433671aa788c42d3e15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 7c | 22,744$1,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,585.51 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1cd8backed Yes | 4c | 4,700$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c5…3a81backed Yes | 10c | 3,900$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 18c | 3,589$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 10c | 2,925$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes | 9c | 2,146$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.97 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2748…e795backed Yes | 8c | 1,669$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc04b…1424backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5665…29d4backed Yes | 9c | 1,388$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe2…c78ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes | 14c | 827.14$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9500…083cbacked Yes | 7c | 808.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b35…6155backed Yes | 10c | 790$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 13c | 775$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d1…60f0backed Yes | 7c | 675$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705f…3fcfbacked Yes | 13c | 615.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dd…1316backed Yes | 7c | 550$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa8…c6d7backed Yes | 5c | 408.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae3…6537backed Yes | 16c | 403.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…18a9backed Yes | 6c | 317.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…5e76backed Yes | 12c | 240.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…ac3fbacked Yes | 18c | 224.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…33c5backed Yes | 11c | 222$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 8c | 208.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…8595backed Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x311e…62a8backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fc…9b6fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1d…a356backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc494…5929backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will another country win Eurovision 2024?this page
- Will Armenia win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Australia win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Austria win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Belgium win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Croatia win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Finland win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will France win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Georgia win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Greece win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Iceland win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Ireland win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Israel win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Italy win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Norway win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Poland win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Spain win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Sweden win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2024?Yes won
- Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2024?No won
- Will the United Kingdom win Eurovision 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.