Movies · resolved market
Will Cillian Murphy win the Oscar for Best Actor?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6ea348dce1867d63836bf12bde5b46acd0b9af0713db61f104ffaf9b6402e88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 71c | 20,174$14,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,939.93 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 27c | 4,523$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.45 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 73c | 3,099$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.32 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No | 12c | 2,938$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.54 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…40bbbacked Yes | 71c | 2,385$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a4…8611backed No | 31c | 1,832$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed No | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5975…6820backed Yes | 71c | 1,408$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a18…f689backed Yes | 73c | 1,316$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 29c | 1,244$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.62 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…e789backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Yes | 71c | 972.96$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.06 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…4cfabacked No | 27c | 965$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccdf…56cdbacked Yes | 73c | 486.63$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2e…1a49backed Yes | 70c | 429.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35c…5961backed Yes | 71c | 295.77$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fc…cff4backed Yes | 71c | 255.31$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…387dbacked No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…fefbbacked No | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed No | 32c | 235$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6f…726ebacked No | 11c | 222$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee3…1069backed Yes | 69c | 204.74$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x964e…40cfbacked No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8a…5724backed No | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 77c | 157.53$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…7377backed No | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…ed41backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd16e…2d90backed Yes | 69c | 142.65$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…ac3fbacked Yes | 69c | 125$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x193c…c2e7backed Yes | 71c | 99.51$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…dd90backed Yes | 71c | 92.96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…1391backed Yes | 72c | 87.14$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…e12abacked No | 33c | 86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3f…b742backed Yes | 77c | 71.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…0bc4backed Yes | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3098…568abacked Yes | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b7…e7e2backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea03…0aa1backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3528…48d1backed Yes | 73c | 48.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 68c | 44.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d5…c686backed Yes | 70c | 38.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…8561backed Yes | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4eb…f9eabacked Yes | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b30…6db4backed No | 31c | 33.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdd…21d2backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad4d…5561backed Yes | 70c | 21.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…4034backed Yes | 77c | 19.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2d…a277backed Yes | 73c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189f…0d13backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cillian Murphy win the Oscar for Best Actor?this page
- Will Bradley Cooper win the Oscar for Best Actor?No won
- Will Jeffrey Wright win the Oscar for Best Actor?No won
- Will Paul Giamatti win the Oscar for Best Actor?No won
- Will someone else win the Oscar for Best Actor?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.