Movies · resolved market
Will Paul Giamatti win the Oscar for Best Actor?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4a7333a23325937904f271aff2dd3c8c5f32d562cce3bfcf68ace986ee4c081
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 26c | 9,216$2,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,426.47 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 27c | 4,500$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec1…467abacked Yes | 10c | 3,072$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 74c | 1,973$1,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.61 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…1edebacked Yes | 28c | 1,500$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 27c | 1,471$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.3 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked Yes | 15c | 1,179$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.35 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…8de7backed Yes | 17c | 1,166$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes | 9c | 1,067$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19be…f052backed Yes | 9c | 670$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 18c | 468$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.13 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a18…f689backed No | 73c | 250$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed Yes | 28c | 205$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 23c | 199.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e0…de9abacked No | 72c | 160.42$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…7febbacked Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f53…fa57backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…d92cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5180…a1ffbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x704b…befebacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…0285backed No | 73c | 49.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f3…c927backed Yes | 29c | 34.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paul Giamatti win the Oscar for Best Actor?this page
- Will Bradley Cooper win the Oscar for Best Actor?No won
- Will Cillian Murphy win the Oscar for Best Actor?Yes won
- Will Jeffrey Wright win the Oscar for Best Actor?No won
- Will someone else win the Oscar for Best Actor?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.