TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 5-11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$691,164
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$727,612

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $691,164 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes8c41,036$3,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,255.0928021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked No77c25,891$19,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,002.7519535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x362c…39dbbacked Yes10c25,805$2,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,564.721010%1 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes9c13,527$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,179.897123.9%17 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes26c12,279$3,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,153.8163835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed No72c7,329$5,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,053.5922550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb63a…4064backed No79c7,326$5,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,544.1717231.4%54 W · 118 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02c1…2e70backed No56c6,050$3,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,671.252540%10 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5c9…41b5backed No51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4504450%22 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes33c4,988$1,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,648.266026.7%16 W · 44 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c4,912$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.51,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes23c4,801$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.3987828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes21c4,668$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.4558126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0154…15a8backed No79c4,393$3,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.343953.8%21 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.16per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9fee…eda2backed No70c4,000$2,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1902263.6%14 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fbb…1e8abacked Yes27c3,146$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8441216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-62.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes12c3,083$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.6223411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ff5…50eabacked Yes13c3,044$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.241921.1%4 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-29%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No62c3,000$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1407163.4%45 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6cd…77c1backed Yes7c2,972$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf632…02aabacked Yes3c2,794$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.777321.9%16 W · 57 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+51.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9df…023fbacked Yes4c2,575$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7e7cbacked No71c2,365$1,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.595444.4%24 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes23c2,346$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.1840643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes8c2,295$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.16785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe784…e664backed Yes42c2,100$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8892626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes2c2,080$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.542999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes24c2,055$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.7564812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x79eb…0270backed Yes51c2,003$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes4c2,000$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.087810.3%8 W · 70 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e98…d70ebacked No76c2,000$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbab5…bb25backed Yes2c2,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-48.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05c7…85f4backed No51c1,964$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.382100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+133.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes31c1,852$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.0537745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2b0…e7e9backed No78c1,814$1,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.633100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+91.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4dc…0da7backed Yes7c1,714$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120267.7%2 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-56.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ff2…8ab4backed Yes4c1,601$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.06333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes17c1,578$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.454721.3%10 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes7c1,364$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.63636.3%4 W · 59 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c1a…7a36backed Yes4c1,360$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes7c1,300$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94855.9%5 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe29e…0507backed No78c1,281$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.981861.1%11 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x70ed…10b4backed Yes9c1,264$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.196625.8%17 W · 49 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x989c…69f4backed No76c1,222$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.377330.1%22 W · 51 L-18.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-54.8%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0xb75e…2670backed Yes30c1,167$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3ea…4bdabacked Yes4c1,118$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.73333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501637.5%6 W · 10 L+4.4wins+0.27per pick10cpaid+549.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x216e…9e81backed Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d48…6573backed Yes10c993.08$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.942828.6%8 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes16c972.84$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.5231523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe1c…3ca5backed Yes11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63ff…d8cdbacked No51c904.49$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.142729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb580…256bbacked Yes4c881.23$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ee3…f07ebacked Yes7c877.96$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed No65c858.28$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.434848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b7…7e0dbacked Yes30c833.33$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb60e…3574backed Yes35c800$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2824658.7%27 W · 19 L+5.3wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+35.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes13c765.88$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.524615.2%7 W · 39 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+32.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcac5…590ebacked No78c762.2$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.6785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick68cpaid+26.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18f4…c58fbacked No62c761.4$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.9814340.6%58 W · 85 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes17c738.18$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.13998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7569…998cbacked Yes14c736.23$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes8c713.86$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.971463.4%5 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5029…bdb4backed Yes37c675.68$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc747…324bbacked Yes10c653.3$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.956622.7%15 W · 51 L+12.3wins+0.19per pick4cpaid+272.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked Yes23c600.5$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.1817229.7%51 W · 121 L-13.0wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3f3…9b44backed Yes18c548.48$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9990%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f5…d350backed Yes26c538.65$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-56.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e6a…e281backed Yes3c530$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.37616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b1…90f6backed No76c501.53$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c4c…a5f0backed Yes31c500$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7532…c6fcbacked No70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15011265.2%73 W · 39 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdaa9…38cebacked Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed No49c500$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2534564.4%29 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes8c500$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda53…855cbacked Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5216…a91dbacked Yes11c499.19$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.77540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41b9…de55backed Yes23c497.25$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.982321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked No80c444.81$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.2926274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x1308…03bbbacked Yes30c393.47$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x414d…d470backed Yes25c358.16$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.54333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa236…73f6backed No65c349.15$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.151050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8c…bfffbacked Yes7c336.86$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.58812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-70.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b9b…3305backed Yes30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb2d…1dc7backed Yes15c308.2$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes8c300$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232417.1%17 W · 224 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1214…cf28backed No79c300$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632556%14 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+59.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8ef…de81backed Yes15c295.47$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435637.5%21 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-13.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbede…8f98backed Yes7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes8c279$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-78.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe928…f6b6backed Yes29c277.96$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x152e…6e7abacked Yes22c273.41$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa918…fd55backed Yes25c266.56$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.39450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62f5…eaaebacked Yes38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac6b…11a9backed Yes26c261$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b05…6ee3backed No73c251.37$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.183100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc83f…d705backed Yes22c250$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5d…0148backed Yes21c236.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed Yes6c233.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.861717.6%3 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick6cpaid+38%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99d4…6709backed Yes26c230.77$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.