Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 5-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x315ec09e3a4a1c7a535d1d8d3ed9b52f0d67792ee1f80eba059858a3e667bc8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $429,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $493,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $429,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x691f…41a1backed Yes | 1c | 194,785$1,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,923.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc644…23f3backed Yes | 37c | 5,410$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…c161backed No | 61c | 4,102$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,602.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,764$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 59c | 3,442$2,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,411.5 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 3,141$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.41 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 67c | 3,000$2,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 32c | 2,928$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.51 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 34c | 2,812$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.41 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes | 15c | 2,619$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47b0…3b60backed Yes | 13c | 2,573$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed No | 79c | 2,521$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.69 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,103$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 85 | 5.9%5 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b0…e8eebacked Yes | 21c | 1,900$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 1,884$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.79 | 63 | 6.3%4 W · 59 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a87…4bbabacked No | 80c | 1,655$1,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de3…2e98backed No | 78c | 1,255$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b99…1cd7backed Yes | 13c | 1,107$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.91 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,085$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 22c | 1,061$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.83 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…9491backed Yes | 1c | 1,046$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 4c | 932.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…0e2dbacked No | 70c | 861$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.3 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 779.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0f…df30backed Yes | 40c | 750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 29c | 699.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 3c | 679.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Yes | 6c | 660$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 4c | 564.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ff…d8cdbacked Yes | 2c | 556.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…7607backed Yes | 35c | 540$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…14cabacked Yes | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 501.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd8…4d49backed Yes | 2c | 500.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fee…eda2backed No | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bd…7dc4backed No | 67c | 435.53$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f2…ab0fbacked Yes | 10c | 420.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 9c | 420$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c76…c8d5backed Yes | 19c | 410$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0340…6907backed No | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 45c | 314.49$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.45 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 34c | 209.28$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.66 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x66f1…2dd9backed No | 80c | 182.84$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29e…0507backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc55a…5cc5backed No | 75c | 140$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…96c0backed No | 60c | 139.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75d…1d45backed No | 77c | 139.11$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -34%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 75c | 128.39$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x010b…81dcbacked No | 66c | 105$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f0…8670backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…c4efbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ee…9153backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c2…6e19backed Yes | 46c | 89.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x264b…cf7fbacked Yes | 24c | 83.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1dd…a272backed Yes | 20c | 81.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 117 | 26.5%31 W · 86 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc9…1296backed No | 76c | 78.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed Yes | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…5e8dbacked Yes | 19c | 68.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed Yes | 32c | 62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5083…fd32backed No | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x400c…781ebacked Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…bef0backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa80d…a122backed Yes | 33c | 45.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…44f5backed Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea26…08fdbacked Yes | 47c | 42.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…dca9backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf353…7aecbacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…de81backed No | 60c | 33.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…be7abacked Yes | 33c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5166…c6ffbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc616…3eedbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08df…06ebbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9213…4dc3backed No | 64c | 26.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe7…1618backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5f2cbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e0…072abacked No | 77c | 22.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0b…43cbbacked No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed No | 66c | 22.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 5-11?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 5-11?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 5-11?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 5-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.