Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 5-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cd5cd6bda6c6d0097c71a6bf13815625743556f73558d9fcef410907603f54c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $309,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $297,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $309,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc747…324bbacked Yes | 2c | 30,925$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.43 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 4cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…39dbbacked Yes | 2c | 25,172$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 14c | 17,764$2,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,449.2 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 5c | 10,470$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.48 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 12c | 10,215$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.67 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf81…2d1dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,110$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,797$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 4,085$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.1 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…6771backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcac…af56backed Yes | 1c | 3,890$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 10c | 3,669$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.31 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 12c | 3,499$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.46 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb646…0cf9backed Yes | 14c | 3,009$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.39 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,923$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.78 | 85 | 5.9%5 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 2,202$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.1 | 63 | 6.3%4 W · 59 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe784…e664backed Yes | 16c | 2,100$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 16c | 2,087$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.51 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc946…1825backed Yes | 24c | 2,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +115.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbb…1e8abacked Yes | 12c | 1,287$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.9 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 5c | 1,283$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 1,229$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.41 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Yes | 8c | 1,193$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.38 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af3…3cbfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,167$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 1,159$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.53 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 1,030$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.83 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 900.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 5c | 887.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2e…2adebacked Yes | 2c | 750$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 4c | 676.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 8c | 621.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e693backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb250…89c8backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ff…d8cdbacked Yes | 22c | 409.93$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.72 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff5…50eabacked Yes | 19c | 313.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…cf28backed Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x152e…6e7abacked Yes | 4c | 289.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…b975backed Yes | 4c | 254.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…6e2ebacked Yes | 21c | 243.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa229…0b73backed Yes | 10c | 240$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc616…3eedbacked Yes | 13c | 239.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x792f…a740backed Yes | 7c | 211.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bb…2d3abacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…ac14backed Yes | 10c | 196.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed No | 76c | 183$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c76…c8d5backed Yes | 13c | 175.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca8…9075backed Yes | 21c | 163.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1dd…a272backed Yes | 8c | 127.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 117 | 26.5%31 W · 86 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 112.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6379…55e4backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…55e7backed Yes | 15c | 94.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 5-11?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 5-11?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 5-11?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 5-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.