TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 5-11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$237,177
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$214,372

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $237,177 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0154…15a8backed Yes63c20,315$12,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,610.843953.8%21 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.16per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes42c20,178$8,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,625.8858126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x02c1…2e70backed No46c17,053$7,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,850.272540%10 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb63a…4064backed Yes78c15,035$11,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,310.4317231.4%54 W · 118 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4124…8af2backed No53c10,000$5,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,299.992152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes57c9,136$5,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,942.8587828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes56c7,331$4,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,237.9863835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa509…6e2ebacked No0c7,284$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes41c7,000$2,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,138.7428021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d53…7bc8backed No0c6,453$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ff3…b0febacked No27c6,000$1,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.097123.9%17 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes59c5,410$3,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,237.1322550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5c9…41b5backed No57c5,000$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8504450%22 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc951…832fbacked No1c4,350$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.251816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70ed…10b4backed No57c4,075$2,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,325.996625.8%17 W · 49 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed No28c3,570$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.6150%0 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x27a2…dd48backed Yes58c2,800$1,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,162.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8546…fcefbacked No63c2,223$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa236…73f6backed No44c2,167$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9541050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55fa…6ebabacked No35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700119.1%1 W · 10 L-4.6wins-0.42per pick51cpaid-88.3%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes55c1,838$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.366026.7%16 W · 44 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4b78…4d2fbacked No57c1,622$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.41625%4 W · 12 L-5.9wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-62.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No32c1,502$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.5164812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes58c1,405$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.8840643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18f4…c58fbacked No68c1,218$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.4214340.6%58 W · 85 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0066…394fbacked No27c936.56$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.166119.7%12 W · 49 L-5.2wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No3c900$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.056785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc749…e803backed Yes60c814.78$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.451921.1%4 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-44.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Yes46c720$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.27767.5%52 W · 25 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe784…e664backed Yes62c600$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2282626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked Yes61c595.41$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.5317229.7%51 W · 121 L-13.0wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa51…e1dcbacked Yes62c582.68$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No42c562.44$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.8516537.6%62 W · 103 L-21.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-38.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x989c…69f4backed No42c551.9$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.387330.1%22 W · 51 L-18.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-54.8%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Yes59c517.27$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.6126274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x6964…5254backed No18c500$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No33c457.11$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.784721.3%10 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fbb…1e8abacked Yes41c417.07$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.071216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-62.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9196…c311backed No40c352.38$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14012736.2%46 W · 81 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fef…5946backed Yes75c318.67$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.671225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed No11c300$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.14615.2%7 W · 39 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+32.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No3c300$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3636.3%4 W · 59 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb165…c97ebacked No61c299.99$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.991866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x411b…ae57backed Yes34c294.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.122100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+166.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe965…f044backed No37c261.27$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5029…bdb4backed Yes39c259.54$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.54540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb75e…2670backed Yes39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.41333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa29b…a0b8backed Yes43c233.72$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.722744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x910d…c8babacked No35c230$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.55922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-27.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ae1…2973backed Yes44c227.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.59825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-46.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb93…735cbacked Yes50c200.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No25c200.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4531523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2855.9%5 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed No10c200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191463.4%5 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122417.1%17 W · 224 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x010b…81dcbacked Yes50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1004837.5%18 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked No44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.919535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb60e…3574backed Yes69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624658.7%27 W · 19 L+5.3wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+35.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe585…91b5backed No61c196.97$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202857.1%16 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xea41…2312backed Yes48c188$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.76333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1308…03bbbacked Yes45c184.33$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7a2…bf99backed Yes45c184.1$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+123.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked No22c171.29$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.83998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd962…1d5cbacked Yes59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.49475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+32.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ff6…9386backed Yes41c167.85$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.61118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-62.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82f9…e91dbacked No61c164.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae05…f5d1backed Yes39c164.36$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.064126.8%11 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19cc…2529backed Yes55c140$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5d…0148backed Yes39c128.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.21333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d72…1214backed No25c115$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.951020%2 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+43.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb424…e203backed No44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501478.6%11 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick73cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c76…c8d5backed Yes45c111.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.112213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-52%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fcb…0521backed No29c110$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.92646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc83f…d705backed Yes38c105.26$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.26540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a94…89d7backed Yes40c100.38$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.371118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.24per pick42cpaid-61.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7532…c6fcbacked No63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6311265.2%73 W · 39 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f6c…e10dbacked Yes72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.42450%12 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0373…1628backed No44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e93…e71abacked No60c92.97$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.783729.7%11 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+20.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f5…d350backed Yes46c86.7$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.7520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-56.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ef…de81backed Yes41c84.87$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.885637.5%21 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-13.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb9f…bef0backed No61c81.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502245.5%10 W · 12 L-3.7wins-0.17per pick62cpaid-35.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x400c…781ebacked Yes40c80$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf1f…3537backed Yes72c80$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.42857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb9…44f5backed No45c76$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347121.1%15 W · 56 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc616…3eedbacked No20c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151127.3%3 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5083…fd32backed Yes68c73.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.641580%12 W · 3 L+4.0wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+42.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc887…869bbacked No29c70$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.33138.7%12 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ef3…5b65backed No29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…1d80backed No60c68$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.83732.4%12 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fe7…03e0backed Yes47c62.23$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0764…2e43backed Yes39c51.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x549a…c866backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab90…5793backed No40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd037…a1c4backed Yes51c49.97$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05f4…afc3backed No55c48.73$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-32.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Yes38c45.63$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.113969.2%27 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+29.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcefa…3861backed No45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cb7…93c7backed No46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207950.6%40 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.