TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 5-11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$618,943
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$594,275

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $618,943 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x691f…41a1backed Yes10c128,059$12,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,683.9360%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x362c…39dbbacked Yes2c25,515$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.61010%1 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02c1…2e70backed No40c16,632$6,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,966.432540%10 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0154…15a8backed No76c13,288$10,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,144.833953.8%21 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.16per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes0c11,122$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.12800%0 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76c8…e383backed Yes3c11,026$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.89904.4%4 W · 86 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes14c10,165$1,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,403.3263835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5831…3f6cbacked Yes0c10,025$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1560%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4124…8af2backed No37c10,000$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,3002152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c0b…0445backed Yes1c5,954$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6070%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes15c5,948$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.2764812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c5,902$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.821,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbab5…bb25backed Yes1c5,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-48.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0f…df30backed Yes25c4,831$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes4c4,700$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21012020%24 W · 96 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c3,939$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.826785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes31c3,922$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209.886026.7%16 W · 44 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe700…7005backed No25c3,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2501478.6%11 W · 3 L+6.9wins+0.50per pick29cpaid+200.1%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes20c3,000$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6012114.3%3 W · 18 L-4.8wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-79.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes67c3,000$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0107123.9%17 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes56c2,980$1,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,660.0987828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes9c2,972$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.455117.6%9 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes4c2,892$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.62855.9%5 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed Yes12c2,600$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.34035%14 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-41.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes4c2,592$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.08636.3%4 W · 59 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x25ab…6321backed Yes14c2,212$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+173.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked No35c2,045$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,329.38625.6%22 W · 64 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes8c1,769$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.024615.2%7 W · 39 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+32.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3761…bb47backed Yes12c1,512$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.736615.2%10 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+27.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc18b…9491backed Yes2c1,351$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2570%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c1,325$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed No62c1,291$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.0240643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6925…d76dbacked Yes2c1,247$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0777…df1fbacked Yes8c1,229$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d48…6573backed No34c1,222$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.162828.6%8 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17ce…1512backed Yes4c1,214$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed No62c1,165$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.1622550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b99…1cd7backed Yes26c1,088$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.341010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8c…bfffbacked Yes1c1,018$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-70.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0066…394fbacked Yes2c1,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186119.7%12 W · 49 L-5.2wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x882e…54cebacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes5c1,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.787810.3%8 W · 70 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ca…a461backed Yes35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3502429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-45.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c923.41$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.432999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6a4…f692backed Yes4c891.27$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc749…e803backed Yes5c883.53$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431921.1%4 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-44.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes7c700$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.21463.4%5 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes11c700$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9912012.5%15 W · 105 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No77c696.51$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.9216537.6%62 W · 103 L-21.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-38.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes27c657.66$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.0631523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x989c…69f4backed No78c644.34$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.227330.1%22 W · 51 L-18.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-54.8%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0xc8ea…3793backed Yes11c643.99$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7140%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes9c630$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.573998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes3c618.78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.41333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes7c568.85$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.524721.3%10 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8367…1e2ebacked No57c535$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2291154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0b6…4c95backed No52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-41.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc56a…85d7backed No37c486.49$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.491361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick64cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c76…c8d5backed Yes25c463.6$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.082213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-52%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf964…6e97backed Yes22c454.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac6b…11a9backed Yes8c437$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x920b…c3d4backed Yes5c369.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-47.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes14c353.57$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5598.5%5 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16e6…9e8abacked Yes8c344.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.011428.6%4 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd389…8378backed Yes11c339.11$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.75195.3%1 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.16per pick21cpaid-86.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd992…96c0backed Yes55c325$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.483154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea1e…14cabacked Yes62c322.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20070%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x152e…6e7abacked Yes4c282.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea41…2312backed Yes45c266.67$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe585…91b5backed No75c266.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.672857.1%16 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbde8…15a1backed Yes76c263.9$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-71%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x400c…781ebacked Yes46c258.4$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.51127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59a9…c074backed Yes9c250.28$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72c4…ee6cbacked Yes32c240$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.82722.2%6 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd859…38c5backed Yes9c220$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81437.7%11 W · 132 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24a6…0e2dbacked No51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987565.3%49 W · 26 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7de…dae0backed Yes13c200$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1298…8eccbacked Yes63c199.99$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…2eddbacked No80c189$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+141.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84e6…11c6backed No31c181.84$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.473100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+117%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd55d…7484backed No38c180$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.63339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3647…d661backed No55c168$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+133.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x85a0…1a27backed Yes64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e47…dbcabacked Yes36c147.21$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.231258.3%7 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.28per pick31cpaid+185.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x63ff…d8cdbacked Yes58c146$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.532729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…8d9bbacked Yes10c136$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes64c131.06$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8834848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4865…b0a9backed Yes73c127.82$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-44.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eeb…c3d7backed No69c120$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.22548%12 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe52d…3728backed Yes31c120$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.22254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+28.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes10c119.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.836813.2%9 W · 59 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e3e…3bd4backed Yes24c115$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c92…360fbacked No72c113.11$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9cd…4d9cbacked No79c110.53$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59ad…8a1abacked Yes15c110$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea2…a465backed Yes66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-57.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9112…7797backed Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464553.3%24 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd448…f700backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf16…f61fbacked Yes67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe014…18b5backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-74.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.