Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 5-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8586777c09f002ae117ac360d18ee6f6c4305e730be03f4bb1c4fe87adc79b56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa4bf…95d3backed No | 21c | 5,981$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.91 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02c1…2e70backed No | 13c | 5,858$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.68 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 79c | 4,415$3,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.67 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 10c | 375.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed No | 20c | 146.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 80c | 124.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed No | 24c | 83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…0e2dbacked No | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc1…be90backed No | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ff…d8cdbacked Yes | 80c | 18.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 5-11?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 5-11?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 5-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.