Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 5-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64aac59bf20db17fcbf3ac0d1015afb31f73fe29a5822f5765305c7244d7e299
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $380,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $411,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $380,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x691f…41a1backed Yes | 2c | 43,086$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf591…39c8backed Yes | 0c | 29,281$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 23,008$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 80 | 0%0 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Yes | 0c | 18,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 71 | 0%0 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dc…0da7backed Yes | 1c | 17,554$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 18c | 7,491$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.77 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 5c | 5,732$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.34 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes | 1c | 5,063$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 4,886$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 3,957$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.59 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 18c | 3,824$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.45 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 7c | 3,691$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.75 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,239$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.57 | 85 | 5.9%5 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes | 16c | 1,818$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 1,742$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 63 | 6.3%4 W · 59 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 1,131$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…d419backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…9017backed No | 76c | 999.99$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…14cabacked Yes | 21c | 952.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe1…5d8bbacked Yes | 12c | 932.92$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.95 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 794.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Yes | 4c | 730.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 3c | 701.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 678.03$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.82 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…37d1backed Yes | 2c | 556.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 8c | 482.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7c…f7f2backed Yes | 2c | 455$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5553…b328backed No | 76c | 429.92$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 427.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5302…208abacked No | 79c | 400$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf17f…b558backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…b5bfbacked Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…63dabacked No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…8faabacked Yes | 9c | 190.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ee…4712backed Yes | 15c | 170$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088b…ab3cbacked Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ca…6ea5backed Yes | 21c | 125.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f0…8670backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d90…4d35backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…9e8abacked Yes | 17c | 95.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed Yes | 17c | 74.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd7…db07backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed No | 78c | 51.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcc…5181backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…f61fbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb2…685fbacked No | 79c | 16.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0b…43cbbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 5-11?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 5-11?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 5-11?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 5-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.