TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Suns vs. Pistons

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pistonsof Suns, Pistons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,978,676
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,456,036

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,978,676 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,602 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Suns32c731,595$231,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,415.0287144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Pistons70c200,000$140,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,00054539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8e6…d504backed Suns30c193,466$58,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,039.7621057.1%120 W · 90 L+20.3wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Pistons66c157,074$103,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,613.2851844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Pistons70c133,651$93,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,898.212147.9%58 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Pistons70c88,013$61,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,798.592,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Pistons69c74,520$51,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,459.921,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Pistons69c69,009$47,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,421.551,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Suns6c65,172$3,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,606.2525925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x166a…e675backed Suns33c62,716$20,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,777.952839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Suns47c60,185$28,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,067.962,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6fd…f43ebacked Pistons75c53,207$40,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,108.7310746.7%50 W · 57 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Pistons70c52,138$36,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,641.471,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Pistons70c50,988$35,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,396.3623245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Suns32c40,797$13,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,158.191,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…9ab5backed Suns31c40,371$12,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,514.88728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked Pistons67c33,867$22,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,215.9710255.9%57 W · 45 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pistons65c33,825$21,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,909.575,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f82…9b01backed Suns26c33,534$8,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,840.9916635.5%59 W · 107 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67eb…7ed0backed Suns31c33,136$10,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,395.49650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Suns30c32,796$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Pistons67c32,733$21,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,937.121,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe12a…67efbacked Suns30c31,005$9,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,301.4815841.1%65 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Suns27c30,151$8,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,122.481,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Pistons69c29,814$20,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,242.4329245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pistons68c28,796$19,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,193.499,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Pistons69c25,557$17,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,847.0415247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Suns30c24,539$7,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,396.314243%61 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Pistons69c23,089$16,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,081.091,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Pistons70c23,004$16,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,001.3219751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked Pistons70c22,256$15,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,676.85655.4%31 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Pistons70c22,102$15,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,630.588961.8%55 W · 34 L+0.4wins0.00per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Suns29c21,634$6,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,273.8359653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Pistons68c21,034$14,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,730.7436359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Suns39c20,032$7,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,888.111,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Suns30c20,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,999.9720551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Pistons65c19,125$12,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,648.3947751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Pistons70c18,598$13,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,528.3219560%117 W · 78 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Pistons66c18,578$12,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,325.2783039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b5…9102backed Suns49c18,512$9,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,146.66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-57.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Pistons71c17,916$12,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,195.5937557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Pistons68c17,760$12,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,755.4561851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5798…ab44backed Suns30c17,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.9915740.8%64 W · 93 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Suns49c16,721$8,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,253.2419033.7%64 W · 126 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc57…f5f4backed Pistons48c15,541$7,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,026.7410850.9%55 W · 53 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Suns31c15,257$4,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,704.1939958.4%233 W · 166 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Pistons70c15,000$10,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,50028554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a65…15b1backed Suns29c15,000$4,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3501850%9 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7a6…89b2backed Suns30c15,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,499.9914244.4%63 W · 79 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Suns32c14,000$4,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,459.9235235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed Suns4c13,790$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4904729.8%14 W · 33 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e6…2f0fbacked Suns30c13,333$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0001546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3ac…88c9backed Pistons52c13,000$6,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,2702466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+33.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x713d…53a9backed Pistons66c12,712$8,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,343.5918151.4%93 W · 88 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Suns32c12,233$3,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,924.462,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Suns31c11,771$3,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,680.132,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Pistons70c11,215$7,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,411.2530845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfaba…51debacked Suns68c10,196$6,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,940.8110947.7%52 W · 57 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Suns1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Pistons66c9,837$6,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,346.062,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Pistons70c9,205$6,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,761.5814663.7%93 W · 53 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Suns11c9,200$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,01259646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Pistons71c9,188$6,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,699.5525546.7%119 W · 136 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Pistons68c9,101$6,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,912.3566853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe056…5b0abacked Suns0c9,082$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Pistons69c9,000$6,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,749.9931445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcad0…d752backed Suns27c8,910$2,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,437.521844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Pistons68c8,865$6,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,862.384,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe3…e0fdbacked Suns31c8,740$2,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,709.5520349.8%101 W · 102 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Suns29c8,429$2,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,478.6747043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Pistons59c8,381$4,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,461.8112843.8%56 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Pistons65c8,202$5,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,864.9271547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Suns29c7,931$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.9965750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Pistons69c7,425$5,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,301.6516039.4%63 W · 97 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Suns36c7,156$2,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,57648938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcad4…c108backed Suns33c6,960$2,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,296.846651.5%34 W · 32 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Pistons68c6,753$4,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,191.1135251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pistons56c6,691$3,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,913.414,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x419b…0944backed Pistons65c6,560$4,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2961471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x61a1…6657backed Pistons70c6,269$4,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,910.3727758.8%163 W · 114 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Pistons66c6,245$4,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,122.6230947.6%147 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Suns30c6,217$1,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,865.031,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefa5…3d34backed Suns50c6,167$3,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0927537.3%28 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Suns31c6,000$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,86032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe11f…f5f2backed Suns3c5,915$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.5425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Pistons68c5,907$4,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,890.3234654%187 W · 159 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Suns48c5,774$2,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,771.3812657.1%72 W · 54 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Pistons65c5,592$3,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,957.3324744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xccdb…ffa9backed Pistons72c5,556$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,555.563884.2%32 W · 6 L+10.8wins+0.29per pick56cpaid+59.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x9aeb…5a2dbacked Suns49c5,523$2,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,700.973432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid+35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb583…b0b3backed Pistons65c5,344$3,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,870.5423256.9%132 W · 100 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4b0…e7c3backed Suns1c5,222$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6165…db3cbacked Pistons70c5,210$3,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5638662.8%54 W · 32 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Suns34c5,197$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,75056453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Suns45c5,021$2,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,257.1661939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Suns30c5,000$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,49032051.9%166 W · 154 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Pistons71c5,000$3,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,45029748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Suns30c5,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50035450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Pistons69c5,000$3,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,529.9937944.3%168 W · 211 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Pistons67c5,000$3,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,649.9962347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.