NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ba025d9dd77ef917b542f59c89279f3796f23d9243561ca86c786cc7a44e1b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Pistons, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Pistons | 53c | 25,189$13,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,335.27 | 363 | 59.8%217 W · 146 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Suns | 47c | 23,449$11,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,403.55 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pistons | 58c | 13,342$7,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,730.14 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd098…8c03backed Pistons | 55c | 10,467$5,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,756.9 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Pistons | 57c | 7,935$4,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,523.12 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Suns | 43c | 5,873$2,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,342.72 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Suns | 44c | 5,832$2,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,265.47 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Pistons | 55c | 2,391$1,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,306.59 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…819ebacked Pistons | 59c | 1,688$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Suns | 43c | 1,573$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.76 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Suns | 46c | 1,482$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.51 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed Pistons | 57c | 1,200$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Pistons | 55c | 809.7$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.34 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Suns | 43c | 632.83$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.34 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Suns | 48c | 600$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da5…25edbacked Pistons | 58c | 424.07$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.96 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Suns | 40c | 423.13$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.88 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Pistons | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Pistons | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a5…398fbacked Pistons | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Suns | 42c | 205.75$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.79 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Pistons | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Pistons | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Pistons | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Pistons | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -11.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Suns | 43c | 131$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.67 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pistons | 52c | 111.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9058…a2c2backed Pistons | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Suns | 46c | 91.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Suns | 47c | 87.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…6da9backed Pistons | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 142 | 55.6%79 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Pistons | 57c | 79.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Suns | 50c | 76.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Suns | 42c | 73.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Pistons | 55c | 54.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Pistons | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…0f30backed Pistons | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Pistons | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Pistons | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Pistons | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 218 | 38.1%83 W · 135 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Suns | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Pistons | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 421 | 46.1%194 W · 227 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Pistons | 53c | 38.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Suns | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 175 | 27.4%48 W · 127 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Suns | 46c | 32.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Suns | 42c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Suns | 42c | 29.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Pistons | 56c | 24.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7081…2d9cbacked Pistons | 61c | 23.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Suns won
- Cade Cunningham: Points Over 26.5No won
- Devin Booker: Assists Over 6.5No won
- Devin Booker: Points Over 24.5No won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Suns won
- Spread: Pistons (-7.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. PistonsPistons won
- Suns vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Suns vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Suns vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Suns vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Suns vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Suns vs. Pistons: O/U 219.5Under won
- Suns vs. Pistons: O/U 221.5Under won
- Suns vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5Under won
- Suns vs. Pistons: O/U 223.5Under won
- Suns vs. Pistons: O/U 224.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.