NBA · resolved market

Suns vs. Pistons: O/U 219.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4767bd64111a9becf8f89661f2929a0a4f501bf32cf3756b317dda44a30653b

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 15, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $6,858
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $7,014

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,858 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2a74…de59backed Over	50c	1,398$699 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699	110	48.2%53 W · 57 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Under	50c	1,222$611 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$611	503	47.9%241 W · 262 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Under	51c	1,080$551 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$529.2	560	43.9%246 W · 314 L	-31.2wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	51c	1,020$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$499.77	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over	49c	1,000$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Over	49c	857.5$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420.18	328	46.6%153 W · 175 L	-7.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf20f…3b33backed Over	50c	800$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	183	43.7%80 W · 103 L	-11.0wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-12%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	50c	730$364 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$365.9	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	50c	614.97$307 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$307.66	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53c0…3f90backed Over	50c	338$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b87…f42dbacked Under	52c	291.88$152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.1	75	44%33 W · 42 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Under	11c	280$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$249.2	260	34.6%90 W · 170 L	-20.6wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over	49c	218.41$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.02	843	42.9%362 W · 481 L	-39.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Under	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	784	45.8%359 W · 425 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	119	45.4%54 W · 65 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2496…50a5backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	55	47.3%26 W · 29 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54ee…1943backed Over	55c	185.09$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.8	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Over	52c	171$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.92	543	51.6%280 W · 263 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ca…0d75backed Over	50c	164$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	127	35.4%45 W · 82 L	-12.4wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	48c	148$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.96	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55ac…9955backed Under	11c	100$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	+3.1wins	+0.08per pick	10cpaid	+85.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Over	49c	51.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	745	47.2%352 W · 393 L	-13.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd902…d076backed Under	51c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.6	56	50%28 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe1aa…071abacked Over	53c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	90	47.8%43 W · 47 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b1c…dc02backed Over	50c	21.42$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.71	62	45.2%28 W · 34 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x89a4…5f78backed Under	52c	20.83$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	100	53%53 W · 47 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd236…a65ebacked Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	522	46.6%243 W · 279 L	-7.9wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x56aa…a8cbbacked Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.0wins	-0.25per pick	50cpaid	-66%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Suns vs. Pistons: O/U 219.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event