Movies · resolved market
Will Golden - KPop Demon Hunters win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x447ca419b4ed8febb65f62737a3100bdae079547762c5795cda50f4925415621
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $317,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $317,443 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 10c | 16,421$1,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,662.59 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 14c | 9,125$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.98 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 10c | 7,119$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.71 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 8c | 5,890$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.2 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed No | 11c | 4,830$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.57 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 15c | 4,615$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.55 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 12c | 4,102$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.57 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 8c | 3,965$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.2 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed No | 10c | 2,823$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.85 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 12c | 2,346$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.27 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 10c | 2,118$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.6 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 9c | 2,083$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.08 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked No | 14c | 2,070$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 11c | 2,054$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.95 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 9c | 1,820$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.34 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed No | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.6 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed No | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 17c | 1,368$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.7 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 12c | 1,189$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.34 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96c…d1c7backed No | 13c | 1,129$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…d4aabacked No | 14c | 1,058$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 1,002$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.86 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d2…39f0backed No | 12c | 912$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 9c | 890.27$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.76 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 9c | 803.32$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed No | 9c | 720$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94bc…8ce0backed No | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7c…5947backed No | 9c | 682.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 12c | 677.63$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd57c…afc6backed No | 14c | 638.25$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 9c | 632$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed No | 12c | 628$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.36 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 14c | 599.65$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4a…2184backed No | 7c | 515$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf95…694dbacked No | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…41e3backed No | 12c | 491.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed No | 17c | 478.54$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed No | 14c | 469.13$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 10c | 447.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 13c | 411.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…6216backed No | 17c | 364$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed No | 13c | 349.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c24…b10ebacked No | 12c | 342.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 15c | 326.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 14c | 308.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 11c | 307.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked No | 11c | 299.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 10c | 299.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 7c | 299.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…c454backed No | 9c | 289$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72b2…5548backed No | 11c | 282$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 8c | 278.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10df…04a9backed No | 12c | 267$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…5f61backed No | 12c | 263$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed No | 8c | 262.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 10c | 246.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 74 | 6.8%5 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 6c | 210.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497d…944cbacked No | 12c | 191.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed No | 10c | 186$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe9…7aaabacked No | 7c | 169.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae85…a62ebacked No | 15c | 163.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…7922backed No | 11c | 156$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59e…8937backed No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 11c | 149.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe06…d5d5backed No | 8c | 144$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 10c | 139.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 11c | 137$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6b…6d9dbacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 122.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 10c | 113.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 14c | 100.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…008bbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 13c | 99.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 13c | 94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11a3…b269backed No | 13c | 89.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe527…bae2backed No | 14c | 89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…fae7backed No | 17c | 85.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7b…d463backed No | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Golden - KPop Demon Hunters win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Dear Me - Diane Warren: Relentless win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will I Lied to You - Sinners win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sweet Dreams of Joy - Viva Verdi win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Train Dreams - Train Dreams win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.