Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d20c25bfba348f67424ba9f927455bfcf499762e2cc981e8c8fee9ce3bd151a

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 26, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $277,627
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $90,447

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $277,627 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	2c	50,194$1,235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,235.07	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	0c	23,606$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.36	169	45%76 W · 93 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	0c	9,941$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.1	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	8,093$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.68	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	7,673$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.25	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	1c	6,700$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.87	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	6,550$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.75	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	15c	6,351$952 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$952.01	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	17c	5,390$898 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$898.32	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	5,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	1c	5,000$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.75	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes	1c	4,212$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.78	171	5.3%9 W · 162 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	5c	4,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12f0…6a90backed Yes	1c	3,526$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.9	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	3,200$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.3	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	2c	3,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4340…0202backed Yes	0c	3,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	6cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa135…6085backed Yes	1c	2,811$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	47	12.8%6 W · 41 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-47%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd466…6ce6backed Yes	2c	2,074$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.63	66	15.2%10 W · 56 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	16c	2,004$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.85	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes	15c	1,700$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.11	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-56%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	18c	1,517$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.73	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,038$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.16	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes	12c	1,000$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124	120	15%18 W · 102 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6779…0400backed Yes	16c	1,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	94	7.4%7 W · 87 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	2c	924.64$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.22	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x602f…20e1backed Yes	21c	857.14$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-4.8wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	3c	800$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	13c	670$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.22	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	14c	600$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	13c	551.76$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.39	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	10c	500$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa789…fb63backed Yes	9c	500$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	8c	499.5$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.53	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe09a…d020backed Yes	20c	483$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.6	30	30%9 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d5…bb27backed Yes	21c	476.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	5c	447.78$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.98	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x215d…ba6dbacked Yes	23c	434.78$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	13c	423.08$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	14c	400$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6fb…32e7backed Yes	21c	398.67$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.72	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	14c	364.79$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.75	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbffa…336abacked Yes	10c	350$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	8c	270.98$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes	11c	227.27$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	61	19.7%12 W · 49 L	-6.8wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0783…dd27backed Yes	12c	200$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.6	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ff0…df18backed Yes	16c	200$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8fc4…b930backed Yes	10c	195.68$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	14c	188.68$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.42	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e59…a17cbacked Yes	16c	150.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.16	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdc…0658backed Yes	13c	143$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.59	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c37…f2ffbacked Yes	21c	142.86$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-2.1wins	-0.17per pick	26cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	8c	130$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.76	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf142…02c3backed Yes	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a54…7663backed Yes	21c	119.05$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	109	23.9%26 W · 83 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5d9…4c05backed Yes	18c	112.12$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	41	34.1%14 W · 27 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12c6…8908backed Yes	17c	112$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.04	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.3	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0702…d5f9backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.13per pick	27cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeee2…c260backed Yes	13c	90$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	125	23.2%29 W · 96 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9b2c…8258backed Yes	16c	80$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	+3.1wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	15c	79.18$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ff…aff8backed Yes	18c	70$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+10%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7000…cde2backed Yes	17c	60$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-65.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19af…dd83backed Yes	21c	57.71$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.12	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x798f…cef0backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	430	17%73 W · 357 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0982…92c6backed Yes	21c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	109	14.7%16 W · 93 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6a6…a0c3backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event