Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55ad4284836638c6936aa50bdfeed5f243fe99f30f265714b17b68f858d1d553

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Sep 26, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $137,357
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $18,869

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,357 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	2c	34,684$702 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$702.48	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12f0…6a90backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	0c	5,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	14c	4,025$548 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$548.42	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes	7c	3,900$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.25	63	14.3%9 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	3,189$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.49	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8503…2939backed Yes	4c	2,000$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.89	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd466…6ce6backed Yes	1c	1,654$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.66	66	15.2%10 W · 56 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes	14c	1,590$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-56%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	5c	1,400$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes	14c	1,250$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169	120	15%18 W · 102 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	6c	1,067$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.14	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	12c	1,034$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.59	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57f8…330abacked Yes	11c	999.99$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	13c	999.48$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.84	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	950$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.75	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ff0…df18backed Yes	15c	762.99$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.45	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	760.95$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.1	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	6c	400$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19af…dd83backed Yes	14c	285.71$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes	9c	250$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	94	11.7%11 W · 83 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes	10c	190$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	145	30.3%44 W · 101 L	-12.4wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	9c	140$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfac2…3340backed Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6a6…a0c3backed Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9db5…d5a6backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	12cpaid	+51.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12c6…8908backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeee2…c260backed Yes	14c	90$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	125	23.2%29 W · 96 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xafb9…190dbacked Yes	15c	70$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	23cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event